th<\/sup>, 2022<\/i><\/p>\nBryan Zepp Jamieson<\/i><\/p>\n
I\u2019ve been fairly quiet the past few weeks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. One reason for that is \u201cthe fog of war\u201d–I have no idea of what the actual situation is beyond the blatantly obvious that you can see for yourself just by tuning into any non-fascist news network. For me, that would be the BBC, the CBC, and the Guardian. The US commercial networks (and again, I am limiting myself to the non-fascist ones, which means I\u2019m not wasting time watching Fox or Newsmax or OAN) are, in the confusion and uncertainty, substituting speculation and wishful thinking for actual factual reporting.<\/p>\n
Non-factual reporting, no matter how well-intentioned and sincere, is only one step removed from propaganda, and when there is evident bias, then it IS propaganda.<\/p>\n
Since none of us know what is going on in Putin\u2019s head, or in the Kremlin at large, take reports that he is desperate, on the ropes, facing a possible coup, etc., with a large grain of salt. Some of it may prove to be true, but at this time consider it on the same level of defamation of the foe that we see in all wars.<\/p>\n
Back when the Germans captured Paris, a video circulated showing Hitler doing an absurd little \u201cdance of joy.\u201d The video was fake, just an snippet of Hitler looped to make it appear he was dancing. The intent was to make him look absurd and petty, and while he in many ways was, it actually backfired in some ways in that it humanized him and made him look like he had a sense of humor, neither of which were particularly accurate.<\/p>\n
The pictures of Putin at his absurdly long table also needs to be deprecated, even though the image is accurate. Pundits say it shows a dictator who is paranoid, estranged from everyone except a few sycophants, isolated, and out of touch. It may be true, but it\u2019s also exactly what you might expect to hear of a adversarial leader in time of war. Nor does it prove weakness on Putin\u2019s part: Russia has a long history of leaders, strong-arm dictators who were widely hated but who nonetheless held power for decades. Much as I would like to see Putin fall, I interpret the media analyses of his isolation and weakness as being wishful thinking. Kremlin watching has been a major US government pastime since 1920, but nearly every major development over that century has taken American strategists by surprise. Little has changed.<\/p>\n
As to the military situation in Ukraine, some generalities can be made. It isn\u2019t going well for the Russians, they have taken significant losses in personnel and materiel. All these are also standard wartime claims, made by both sides, but there is a wealth of evidence to support the three items mentioned. As for anything more specific, the military leaders on either side generally understand the tactical and strategic maps little more than the armchair generals watching CNN. There\u2019s an old saying \u201cAll plans die at the start of battle,\u201d and leaders on both sides are tearing their hair out trying to figure out the true situation on the ground. It\u2019s almost always going to be chaotic.<\/p>\n
Claims of losses are also good reason for skepticism. Both sides will inflate enemy losses and minimize own casualties. Remember Vietnam, when you might hears that half a dozen Marines were injured, one by a misfiring beer can opener, while killing 12,500 Viet Cong? And that was from a country that had a free press at the time.<\/p>\n
Claims about morale should be weighed carefully. That the Ukrainians are courageous, determined, and largely united in defense of their homeland is almost a given. Anyone raised in post-war London knows nothing stiffens the backbone of the resident population than lobbing bombs at them. Claims of Russian morale are backed by the mass arrests for protest (including one case where a silent \u201cprotester\u201d was arrested for waving A BLANK PROTEST sign. It\u2019s also a fact that Putin has mandated 15 years in prison for calling his \u201cspecial operation\u201d a war. Claims about the state of morale in the Russian military are harder to evaluate. Few Russian soldiers are willing to grant \u2018man in the street\u2019 interviews, it seems. I think it\u2019s safe to say they aren\u2019t exuberant about the way this situation is developing, though.<\/p>\n
Russians do seem to be targeting cities and the civilian population, a curious approach for a country that is simply trying to bring lost children back into the fold of Mother Russia, but it\u2019s hard to get a sense of the true scale when the cable news is showing the same dozen over and over, either because they can\u2019t or won\u2019t show more. There\u2019s little doubt that the maternity hospital in Mariupol was hit by a large rocket shell, and while the Russians deny it, Occam\u2019s Razor says it was them, although intent is less clear. In the instance of the Mariupol Drama Theatre, where hundreds of civilians, half of them children, had sheltered, intent seems more obvious. The theater had the word \u201cchildren\u201d written in large letters in the grounds surrounding the theater, and even after reporting began of the atrocity, Russian air strikes continued. That\u2019s why, over 24 hours later, we still have no idea of the death toll.<\/p>\n
It is safe to say the Russian economy has taken massive damage. Their stock market has remained closed for over three weeks now, and the ruble is quite literally worth less than a square of American toilet paper. This won\u2019t translate to a popular uprising\u2014Russian history makes that fairly self-evident. Nor is a revolt by the oligarchs likely. Like Putin\u2019s pet American oligarch, Trump, most are bound to Putin because he maintains control over their reputations, their families, and their ability to enjoy their wealth. If they couldn\u2019t overthrow Putin when they had money, what are they going to do now?<\/p>\n
Yes, Putin has bitten off more than he can chew, and yes, what he is doing is a crime against humanity. And it is costing Russia and the Russian people almost as dearly as it\u2019s costing the Ukrainians.<\/p>\n
But beyond that, it\u2019s all smoke and mirror, wishful thinking, and propaganda. If you think you know how it ends, you are delusional.<\/p>\n
But to quote a line I\u2019m known for using, \u201cDon\u2019t lose hope. Never lose hope.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Smoke and Mirrors The war in Ukraine March 16th, 2022 Bryan Zepp Jamieson I\u2019ve been fairly quiet the past few weeks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. One reason for that is \u201cthe fog of war\u201d–I have no idea of what the actual situation is beyond the blatantly obvious that you can see for … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “Smoke and Mirrors – The war in Ukraine”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10,5,617,735],"tags":[884,70,1355,1354,932,1356,794,349,780],"class_list":["post-1238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-foreign-affairs","category-history","category-terror","tag-biden","tag-bombing","tag-enemy-claims","tag-fog-of-war","tag-genocide","tag-mariupol","tag-propaganda","tag-putin","tag-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\nSmoke and Mirrors - The war in Ukraine · Zepp's Commentaries<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/zeppscommentaries.online\/?p=1238\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Smoke and Mirrors - The war in Ukraine · Zepp's Commentaries\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Smoke and Mirrors The war in Ukraine March 16th, 2022 Bryan Zepp Jamieson I\u2019ve been fairly quiet the past few weeks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. 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