Still in the Fog<\/b><\/p>\n
War continues to Russia\u2019s detriment<\/b><\/p>\n
March 29th<\/sup> 2022<\/i><\/p>\n Bryan Zepp Jamieson<\/i><\/p>\n While the usual caveats about \u201cthe fog of war\u201d still apply (nothing said by either side is true until proven) there are some things we can determine from the actual evidence.<\/p>\n Putin\u2019s dream of a quick blitzkrieg takeover of Ukraine is in tatters. The battle lines haven\u2019t moved in over three weeks now, and there are reports that Ukraine has actually recovered small amounts of ground back in a couple of areas. While actual numbers are not available, it\u2019s clear that the Russians have paid a very heavy price in terms of both personnel and materiel, and the Ukrainians have suffered large civilian losses, mostly from the wanton shelling and bombing of civilian centers.<\/p>\n Russia has lost at least ten thousand soldiers, including six generals. There are unconfirmed reports of large defections and desertions, and one confirmed report of a Russian colonel who was fragged by his own troops, apparently by being run over by a tank. Not subtle, these Russians.<\/p>\n Peace negotiations are expected to open in Istanbul in a couple of days, and it\u2019s widely believed that Putin is seeking a compartmentalization of Ukraine, as was done in the 50s in Korea, or the 60s in Vietnam. DMZs, in other words, with Russia holding a strip of land linking them with Crimea, which they already stole. There\u2019s no reason to suppose that would work out any better than previous DMZs did, unless Putin is prepared to following in the footsteps of the Kim dynasty of North Korea and inflict such horror and deprivation on the people in his region that they remain too weak and cowed to put up any real resistance. Granted, as we learned with the Chechnyans, Putin is quite willing to engage in ongoing domestic terrorism against the populace.<\/p>\n Putin claims Russian bombing and shelling campaigns against Kyiv and other cities in the north will abate, although neither the Ukrainian government nor the west are inclined to believe that. Putin has already suffered an embarrassing set-back; he may not want to risk looking weak in the bargain.<\/p>\n Biden came out and said of Putin, \u201cThis guy has to go.\u201d He later explained that he meant exactly what he said, but that it did not reflect a formal change in policy. The media is trying to describe that as a backing away from the original statement and twittering about how undiplomatic it all is, as if America didn\u2019t invent the expression \u201cregime change\u201d back in the 90s. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the heart and soul of today\u2019s GQP, suggested (and I\u2019m not making this up) that America fly planes painted with Chinese markings into Russia and bomb them, in hopes of sparking a major war between the two major powers. Perhaps he\u2019s hoping for lower land prices in both nations that he can exploit. And today\u2014today!–he publicly asked Putin to drop whatever he was doing and dig up dirt on Hunter Biden. Aren\u2019t you glad we got rid of that loon? One down, one to go.<\/p>\n Putin\u2019s response? \u201cIt is time for us, for our people, to call on the people of the United States to change the regime in the U.S. early,\u201d Russian TV host Evgeny Popov said, \u201cAnd to again help our partner Trump to become president.” State TV being the bastion of independent journalism that it is, you know.<\/p>\n In the meantime, at least ten million civilians have been displaced in the Ukraine, with an estimated four to five million having fled the country altogether. The US has vowed to accept 100,000 refugees, and Canada has a three-year refugee status program with no limit on the number of refugees. The UK is offering \u00a3350\/month to any household accepting refugees. While a welcome move, it\u2019s unlikely to address the needs of more than about 10% of the refugees. Poland is taking the brunt of the exodus, and they are poorly equipped to handle it, and anti-Russian sentiment will only last so long as a buffer against Poland\u2019s notoriously xenophobic culture.<\/span><\/p>\n A<\/span>nd there\u2019s also the possibility that the war will reduce one or both sides to pauperized failed states. Russia has been shown to be far weaker in terms of economy and morale than expected, and Ukraine is suffering bombardment the like of which Europe hasn\u2019t seen since World War II. (American campaigns against Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq were far worse, of course, but the victims weren\u2019t white, you know.)<\/span><\/p>\n One of the curious items is the reports that two negotiators in previous talks with Russia came down with symptoms consistent with novichok poisoning. The Guardian had a piece on this today, writing,<\/p>\n \u201cGuardian reporter based in Kyiv, Shaun Walker, brings us this analysis piece, asking: <\/i><\/span>Why is Abramovich playing peacemaker after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/a>? <\/i><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n \u201cSanctioned billionaire Roman Abramovich<\/a> is not officially part of the Russian delegation, but has apparently played a major role behind the scenes, jetting between Moscow, Kyiv and Istanbul since Russia invaded Ukraine.<\/i><\/p>\n \u201cFurther questions about what role Abramovich was playing, and why, were raised on Monday, when the Wall Street Journal and investigative outlet Bellingcat claimed Abramovich and a Ukrainian MP were among three people to fall ill with symptoms consistent with chemical poisoning<\/a>, during a round of negotiations in Kyiv in early March.<\/i><\/p>\n \u201cA source confirmed to the Guardian that Abramovich had fallen ill after the meeting, and had lost his sight for several hours. He soon recovered and was able to take part in later rounds of negotiations.<\/i><\/p>\n Aside from the poisoning claims, the emergence of the publicity-shy oligarch at the heart of peace negotiations has also surprised many.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n The West has brought many sanctions to bear, many aimed at Russia\u2019s plutocrats. Perhaps they are having an effect. Certainly Putin uses kompromat<\/i> and extortion to control his billionaires (including, it\u2019s rumored, Donald Trump) but that can only carry him so far in the face of ruin.<\/p>\n Biden is right: no matter what happens in Ukraine, this guy needs to go. He won\u2019t stop with an eastern partition of Ukraine. You can take that to the bank.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Still in the Fog War continues to Russia\u2019s detriment March 29th 2022 Bryan Zepp Jamieson While the usual caveats about \u201cthe fog of war\u201d still apply (nothing said by either side is true until proven) there are some things we can determine from the actual evidence. Putin\u2019s dream of a quick blitzkrieg takeover of Ukraine … <\/p>\n