{"id":303,"date":"2018-07-12T14:50:59","date_gmt":"2018-07-12T21:50:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thebigweasel.wordpress.com\/?p=303"},"modified":"2018-07-12T14:50:59","modified_gmt":"2018-07-12T21:50:59","slug":"the-flare-lights-out-folks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zeppscommentaries.online\/?p=303","title":{"rendered":"The Flare: Lights Out, Folks"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
By Zepp<\/a> <\/span> on Saturday, April 28, 2018<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

The Flare<\/b><\/p>\n

Lights Out, Folks<\/b><\/p>\n

Bryan Zepp Jamieson<\/p>\n

April 28th<\/sup>, 2018<\/p>\n

In my fictional future universe that provides the background for my novels, I have an early 22nd<\/sup> century event that is referred to simply as \u201cThe Flare\u201d. The sun emits a mighty burp, and emits a coronal mass ejection classified as X44, roughly one half the strength of which the sun is capable. This hits planet Earth squarely.<\/p>\n

The northern lights are not only visible at the equator, but visible in daylight above 80 degrees north. This direct hit destroys vast amounts of the electronics, and immediately kills or incapacitate roughly ten million people, those unlucky to be using cybernetic implants at the time. The ensuing chaos and damage result in the Vast Depression, which lasts nearly a century. Combined with global warming and other misfortunes, by the 24th<\/sup> century only a billion people are alive, and they tell one another lurid tales of kitchen appliances going mad and killing their masters during the flare. On a more rational level, cybernetic technology is non-existent, and while computers still exist, society isn\u2019t as reliant on them as before the Flare.<\/p>\n

Not only is this something that can happen; it\u2019s something that will happen. We had such a solar storm hit Earth in 1859, called the Carrington Event after Richard Christopher Carrington, one of two astronomers at the time to observe it. The entire telegraph system went down, and wires and batteries shorted, causing numerous fires. That storm was estimated at X42, about one quarter the size of the X44 monster from my story.<\/p>\n

An X20 would be enough to wipe out half the world\u2019s electrical system and most of the computers. The sun has had X20 bursts in 1972, 1989, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2011. Fortunately, none of them hit Earth squarely.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s only a matter of time.<\/p>\n

For now, we\u2019re about as safe as we can hope for: we\u2019re approaching a minimum on the 11 year solar cycle, during which big CMEs are less likely\u2014not impossible, just less likely. And there is speculation that the sun is going into a \u201cMaunder Minimum\u201d, an extended period of solar peace that might last for the better part of a century. The last such was from 1645 to 1715. Some of the Climate denialists have been celebrating this, pretending that the half-a-degree centigrade drop in global irradiation will somehow obviate the greenhouse gas-propelled rise of 3-5 degrees presently forecast. Well, that\u2019s why they are called denialists. But even with the twin minimums, the possibility remains. You\u2019re \u2018safer\u2019 in much the same way that you are less likely to die in an auto accident at 60 miles an hour than you are in one at 90 miles an hour.<\/p>\n

I know a fellow who is a watchdog for public safety, primarily fire (always a major concern here in the west), but also other natural and man-made disasters that might befall us, and he\u2019s recently been trying to get some sort of government response plan set up for a possible electromagnetic pulse (EMP). He\u2019s worried about the sun, of course, since CMEs can produce EMPs world-wide and do several trillion dollars in just a few seconds. It put the lights out over wide areas for hours in 1978 and 1989, and those were near misses by (relatively) moderate CMEs.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a second thing that can put the lights out, and that\u2019s human agency. Nuclear weapons can create EMPs, but only a millionth of what the sun can produce. The effects would be somewhat limited, and if you were the target of such a device, you probably wouldn\u2019t have much time to enjoy the EMP before the hydrogen bomb exploding over your head resulted in an RUD, or Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly, of your body.<\/p>\n

However, there is malign human agency that can put the lights out, for months or even years. I even mentioned it in a piece I wrote a few weeks ago during a period of higher-than-usual political tension: \u201cIf in the next few days, we have an electronic meltdown in which the Internet, power grid, and banking system all shut down, then it\u2019s safe to assume that Vladimir Putin just declared\u2014and probably won\u2014World War III against the United States.<\/i>\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s rumored that several nuclear powers have nuclear weapons that can be set off in low Earth orbit, and while there would be no blast damage, the EMP could affect electronics over several hundred square kilometers. To that end, the Pentagon has \u201chardened\u201d most of their communications, protecting them against such, and, it\u2019s claimed, the Russians have war planes that actually use vacuum tubes, which are resistant to the damage an EMP can cause electronics.<\/p>\n

Of far greater consequence is the possiblity that malign entities can hack and shut down computer systems, driving the electrical grid, banking records, nearly all communications and systems controlling dams, sewer system, traffic and hundreds of other vital infrastructure systems into an electronic brick wall, possibly destroying them.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible that World War Three won\u2019t announce itself with bright blue nuclear flashes, or sudden outbreaks of smallpox in major cities, or horrific gases causing thousands to drop, convulsing, in the streets. No, it may be something as simple as a power black out. We often experience those, of course, and don\u2019t think much of them unless they last more than an hour or so.<\/p>\n

If you run into a buddy who lives \u201coff the grid\u201d\u2013solar panels, Tesla batteries, satellite for his TV and computer, and he\u2019s complaining his Internet is gone along with TV, then you might assume war has broken out.<\/p>\n

In my story, the real damage comes in the months following the flare, when humanity is suddenly trying to feed and water itself with 19th<\/sup> century technology, only there\u2019s five times as many people as that technology could support. And the money\u2019s no good, because it was vaporized along with the computer systems. Only a few million die during the Flare; and virturally none who weren\u2019t wearing electronic implants. But billions die in the six months following, in the chaos and shortages caused by the sudden collapse of our electronic systems.<\/p>\n

That public safety fellow is right to be worried about EMPs and their close cousins, cyberattacks. Both can do untold damage, and may announce themselves with nothing more dramatic than your stereo suddenly stopping and your car engine dying.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s not a lot you can do to prevent either, but if you want to have something after the events, learn how to build a Faraday cage. They\u2019re pretty simple, really. And consider getting off the grid as best as you can. If you are in a major city, get out. Take survivalist train, cache supplies somewhere you can get to without cars or other transportation. And best of luck.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Zepp on Saturday, April 28, 2018 The Flare Lights Out, Folks Bryan Zepp Jamieson April 28th, 2018 In my fictional future universe that provides the background for my novels, I have an early 22nd century event that is referred to simply as \u201cThe Flare\u201d. The sun emits a mighty burp, and emits a coronal … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The Flare: Lights Out, Folks”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10,18,1],"tags":[369,370,371,372,373,374],"class_list":["post-303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-science","category-uncategorized","tag-cme","tag-coroneal-mass-ejection","tag-electromagnetic-pulse","tag-emp","tag-power-outages","tag-war-tactics"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Flare: Lights Out, Folks · Zepp's Commentaries<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/zeppscommentaries.online\/?p=303\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Flare: Lights Out, Folks · Zepp's Commentaries\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Zepp on Saturday, April 28, 2018 The Flare Lights Out, Folks Bryan Zepp Jamieson April 28th, 2018 In my fictional future universe that provides the background for my novels, I have an early 22nd century event that is referred to simply as \u201cThe Flare\u201d. 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