Category: Science

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Heil Trump! — Leni Riefenstahl should have filmed the speech

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

March 5th 2025

I only watched the first half hour of Trump’s speech last night. I understand he raved and ranted and lied for a full 100 minutes, which puts him in line with other windy despots, such as Castro or Hitler or Mao. I’ve always wondered why dictators feel a need to orate at such length. Do they enjoy holding a captive audience? Or is there a deeper insecurity at work here? Braggarts often are compensating for something.

The speech was interrupted several times by chants of “USA! USA!” from the Republican side. One hears it often at international sporting events, and it’s usually good natured if a bit tiresome. But there was an edge, a bellicosity to the chant here that made it sound more like “Sieg Heil!” All that was missing was the stiff-armed salute. It’s a pity the camera angle couldn’t pick out faces of those saluting the dictator: I wondered how many wore the same joyous truculence of the true believer, and how many sneaked nervous glances about, too aware of the penalties for inadequate enthusiasm. (I wonder if anyone in the room looked for the same thing and had the wisdom to realize that the true believers would be the greater threat to Trump than the shivering cowards. When Trump’s programs implode and the public fury rises, they will turn faster and harder against Trump.)

“Never be the first to stop applauding” – Alexandr Solzhenitsyn

Trump got into the issue of waste in Social Security. Apparently he hoped a long list of patently untrue claims would give him some credence, but as usual, he over embellished, breaking down “recipients” by age groups—110 to 115, 116-125, and so on up to 350. That last one amused me: apparently someone filed for social security benefits either in 1675 or at the age of 260, when Social Security actually came into existence. I watched Mike Johnson shaking his head sorrowfully over that, and recalled that the man is a Bible literalist, which means he really believes Methuselah really lived to be 969. Maybe he thought the SS recipient in question was actually one of Noah’s children, and was just lying about his age in order to pick up girls. Was he first paid in ducats or florins?

Of course, there are no checks going out to people older than about 113. The December 2024 Social Security stats show that a bit over 89,000 people got payments, in line with the census report from 2020 which showed 88,000 in that age group. The database is in COBOL, which uses numbers like 150 to indicate that the person in question is dead.

But Trump has two audiences he wants to reach: those who are in on the con as part of his drive to flat-out steal the Social Security trust fund, and utter fools. If you believe him but don’t know which group you’re in, you’re in trouble.

Trump babbled about the “woke agenda” of course. Among other items that he considers woke: “biodiversity,” “transgenic mice,” and “discriminants.” As I said, his main audience is morons.

At least one Democrat, Rep. Al Green (D, Texas) stood and shouted “You have no mandate to cut Medicaid!” and “He has no mandate!” Mike sent the palace guard to evict him. It’s a pity the rest of the Democrats didn’t join him.

Still, Trump woke up this morning to a new crisis, which probably took the sheen off what he doubtlessly considered a wildly successful oration: the Supreme Court ruled that he must honor the contracts made from funds allocated by Congress to outfits such as USAID.

The ruling, which in any sane time would have been a 9-0 no-brainer, was dissented by Clarence Thomas, Brett Kavanaugh, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch. Alito wrote the dissent, saying he was “stunned” that judges might think it is the duty of judges to adjudicate contracts under the rule of law. That is, after all, only the reason judges exist in the first place, and obviously is just some woke liberal crap and must be struck down. I wonder if any of those four have considered what may happen if they managed to rule against their own raison d’être. Of course, their masters at the Heritage Foundation probably have golden parachutes ready for when they finish selling out the country and there is no longer any reason for silliness like “Constitutional Law.”

But it puts Trump right up against that red line: does he abandon his efforts to dismantle the government by fiat, or does he defy the Court? Either way leads to the end of his government, either as a legitimate government or a government at all.

For all of us, the red line is here. And if he crosses it and defies the courts, then either Trump must go, or America does.

Your choice what to do next.

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World Wide Weather — In the Event Of

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

February 5th 2025

www.zeppscommentaries.online

With the events in Boulder this morning, with Elon Musk’s move to take over the NOAA headquarters, we must prepare for the possibility that NOAA may vanish, or be subsumed into a commercial weather service that puts profits and political expediency ahead of accuracy.

Below are a list of site that may survive such a purge and continue to be useful. Note that many depend on NOAA for their basic data and hopefully are scrambling to access data from outside the United States.

I’ll also included tips for security accessing sites that may not be approved of by the government going forward so you won’t be in the dark.

https://worldweather.wmo.int/en/home.html

“This global website presents OFFICIAL weather observations, weather forecasts and climatological information for selected cities supplied by National Meteorological & Hydrological Services (NMHSs) worldwide.The NMHSs make official weather observations in their respective countries. Links to their official weather service websites and tourism board/organization are also provided whenever available. Weather icons are shown alongside worded forecasts in this version to facilitate visual inspection.”

https://www.bbc.com/weather

Weather forecasts for thousands of sites around the world

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

“The Met Office has been keeping folks informed about changes in the weather for over a century and a half now. As the official forecaster for the UK, they know their stuff! Based in Exeter, their team watches endless amounts of data from locations all over using some high-tech supercomputers. We appreciate how the regional forecasts on their site make planning trips featured in our travel blogs a breeze. Beyond daily outlooks, they also offer specialized guidance for marine weather that even the hardiest sailors rely on. With unmatched experience studying the complex sciences behind our atmosphere, the professionals at the Met Office have a well-earned reputation for reliable predictions.”

https://weatherspark.com/

“WeatherSpark is one of the best weather sites for super simple yet effective planning. Based out of Seattle, their team has made forecasting fun with their clean interface focused on graphics over jargon. We love how their maps show easy-to-grasp color animations right on top of places featured in our travel blogs. Beyond standard precipitation and temp charts, they provide cool extras too – from “feels like” Adjusted Temperature charts to chance of snow measurements. WeatherSpark also gathers hyper-local data using sensors embedded around cities. This street-level detail comes in handy when we’re deciding between hiking trails. And it’s not just us – Foursquare users voted them ‘Best new weather app’”

[Note: while based in Seattle, they are close enough to the Canadian border that they may be able to continue operations]

https://www.windy.com/?41.248,-122.113,5

Based in the Czech Republic, Windy has a real time wind map of the globe.

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb

Global coverage by satellite in real time.

 

https://www.ventusky.com/

Ventusky (AI forecasts, so remember what happens if you ask AI if water freezes at 27F)

“This is one of the best weather websites. You see forecasts for a whole week and hour to hour too. This lets owners schedule events better. Ventusky works worldwide too. Alerts come quickly if bad weather is near. The app is neat and easy. AI helps explain what weather means. Companies doing things outside need good weather tips.

“It even learns where you are to give better forecasts. Maps and pictures show lots of weather details too. Plus fun articles teach about weather. Whether for work or play, Ventusky gives good weather so plans can happen no matter the sky.”

https://www.meteoprog.com/

Meteoprog

“Meteoprog combines weather data and technology to help countries, companies and people better address weather-related challenges. This site provides the ability to track meteorological information around the world. Meteoprog has been forecasting the weather for over 20 years. This site has own solutions and forecast models.”

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/

Weather World Online

“World Weather Online is one of the best weather websites. Weather-obsessed and accuracy-focused, we pour passion into predictions for all – from skiers to surfers. Daily downpours or weekend wonders worldwide, you’ll get reliable, up-to-date climate intel. Sports folks score with specially simulated conditions. Businesses and developers leverage our precise APIs in myriad mediums. Continually crunching complex climate data through our forecasting framework, we fuse major meteorological models for the most masterful meteorology possible.”

https://www.Weatherwest.com

I’ve no doubt Daniel Swain will keep his site going for as long as possible and is surveying sources of reliable meteorological and climatological information.

A lot of these sites depend on NOAA, in part or in whole, for their forecast models. Should NOAA go dark or be mismanaged into irrelevance, sites like these will be prepared to step in should we be reduced to being charged money for inferior information.

Security is always an issue. People should get a good VPN (Proton is free and works quite well), along with a Tor Browser (also free), use Duck Duck Go for searches (also free and they don’t track you). For untraceable communication, the ancient pre-web technology of Usenet is available. Type in “Endless September” on your internet search engine for details.

We are in unpredictable times, and access to good scientific data is under assault. Prepare now while there is time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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DeepSeek — China gets the drop on us

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

January 27th, 2025

Hey, everyone, remember the gigantic AI thing, the one that Musk wanted to raise a trillion* dollars to invest, backed by bitcoin? Trump was talking about a $500 billion that he would probably just steal from the Social Security fund. All the tech giants were in a huge race to pour money into AI, hoping to make it bigger, stronger, faster? Remember that?

Sure you do. It was all just there yesterday.

Well, funny story.

China has released something called DeepSeek. It’s their own AI platform, easily as powerful and flexible as the ones the tech bros have been dumping all those trillions into. They did it on a grand total of six million dollars budget. Pocket change for Intel, and for Musk, just part of his pocket lint.

Oh, yeah. Also, it’s open source. That means anyone can take it, play with it, use it, adapt it, all for free.

The financial bubble pop was probably big enough that it caused that earthquake in Maine. It may well be the biggest financial pop in history, even bigger than the real estate crash of ‘08.

Investors react to such upheavals with the equanimity of a flock of chickens in a thunderstorm, and as a result, the tech markets are busily tearing out their own entrails and eating them feverishly in a effort of minimize the scale of the crash.

A glance at the markets this morning shows carnage. Nvidia is down 17%. NASDAQ is down over 600 points. Marketwatch has the reassuring headline, “Does DeepSeek spell doomsday for Nvidia and other AI stocks? Here’s what to know.” The lede was interesting, as well: “That’s the big question on the minds of investors Monday, given newfound attention on DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app that has climbed to the top of downloads from Apple’s U.S. App Store. The service has become so popular that it’s restricting registration due to what it called ‘large-scale malicious attacks.’” Hmm. I’m guessing those attacks aren’t coming from Dark Web hackers. Care to guess which companies and/or countries are behind it? I’m imagining the TrumpenMusk coalition is quite busy this morning.

On one hand, it’s gratifying to see the techbros take a haircut on this scale. Most of them have accumulated vast amounts of wealth and power, which they’ve combined with a vapid kleptomaniacal libertarianism in hopes of unlimited wealth and power while the other 99.9% of us eke out an existence in an Ayn Randian hellscape.

And I was contemplating a vast bubble backed by cybercurrency, a truly frightening prospect. It’s one thing to say currency has no real intrinsic value and thus bitcoin is equal, and that’s true so far as it goes; you can’t eat gold, as they say. But regular currency has consensus value: a dollar is worth a dollar because everyone roughly agrees that a dollar has value. With bitcoin, the “consensus” lies in computer algorithms which are far more volatile and not attuned to human needs. If the lights go out, bitcoins value vanishes. Vaporware backed by pretend money really does sound a bit…tenuous, doesn’t it?

But I also feel apprehension. DeepSeek doesn’t just open Pandora’s Box; it blows that sucker to smithereens. Everyone will have access to extraordinarily powerful AI and can play with it in any way they choose.

The Trump administration will probably yell that it can’t be trusted because there’s no guessing what the Chinese have in the way of back doors or acquisitionware. You know, like they supposedly do with TikTok.

But being open source means anyone can examine the source code, line by line, making unexpected guests on board next to impossible.

The drawback, of course, is that anyone else can take that code and add all sorts of goodies and foist that off on an unsuspecting public.

I would imagine that something similar to the Linux community will spring up and monitor the various flavors of DeepSeek that emerge. While significantly more complex than a desktop OS, Deep Seek does have the advantage over Windows and other programs in that it’s ALL visible.

But if you thought AI was expanding at a fantastic rate before, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

This doesn’t bring about a smarter AI that can actually think. And it can make some really amazing mistakes. Peter Cawdron posted an in-depth, probing five-page AI-spawned review of his book “Enclave.” It was very convincing except for one little thing—he never wrote a book called “Enclave.” And I can’t imagine writing a five page review of his work without mentioning First Contact. The other day, someone asked an AI if water freezes at 27F. The AI replied it does not, it freezes at 32F, so in order to freeze the water, you would need to raise the temperature from 27 to 32. And you thought Bible-based “science classes” were ridiculous.

Right now, we’re all just blinking at the afterglow of a thermonuclear explosion. I suspect we’re in for an interesting few months, even without the Nazis in Washington.

* Yes, trillion, one thousand billions, one million millions unless you learned to count English style, in which case it’s a British billion.

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Scientific Kattenstoet — When madness organizes

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

November 19th 2024

Going clear back to the 1980s, the scientific community and millions of other educated people have been warning about global warming and its knock-on effects. For decades, people in the know have advised us that among many other things, warmer ocean temperatures combined with warmer air would result in bigger and far more destructive hurricanes.

Despite the gravity of the looming catastrophe, most people chose to simply ignore the warnings, a sense of denial bolstered by a coalition of filthy-fuel corporations and their fascist enablers in right-wing media, who assured their panting morons that “climate change” was just a conspiracy theory fostered by people who wanted us all to live in caves and hate capitalism.

To say that this caused a lot of frustration among sane people is an understatement.

An unforgettable example of this occurred as hurricane Milton was approaching Tampa Bay about a month ago. A Miami TV weatherman, John Morales, saw the numbers that suggested that the storm was undergoing “bombogenesis”–a sudden and large intensification. The phenomenon, not widely known twenty years ago, is a major factor in estimating the power and destructiveness of an approaching hurricane. Normally, a drop of 25mb in the central eye pressure in 24 hours indicates such a phenomenon is taking place. Milton dropped FIFTY millibars in that period, and Morales understood—and dreaded—the implications. He burst into tears over the damage to come.

Global warming means bigger, stronger storms. And a host of even more serious problems, but that was probably the easiest one to predict decades ago. And the American South has always been the area most vulnerable to landfalls from such storms.

So while Helene and Milton this year may have caused despair among climate scientists, they certainly did not cause surprise. And they’ll be the first to say it’s only going to get worse.

In fact, here in northern California, it’s just starting to snow this morning. A system is approaching the Oregon coast, and while not a hurricane, is developing similar intensity. The central pressure is expected to plunge about 40mb today, with central winds over 90 mph and waves in some areas 60 feet high. I’m 100 miles inland and at 3,300 elevation, and expect heavy snow for three days, and heavy rain after that. Nothing too extraordinary for us, but along the coast from the Bay area northward, it could have storm-of-the decade elements. Climate change didn’t cause the storm, but it does influence its power.

It’s not surprising that climate denialism—the refusal to accept that human emissions are having a major effect on climate world-wide—is losing popularity. When you get several storms-of-the-century or drought of a lifetime in the past decade, there is a dawning awareness that Something Is Going On Here.

Of course, this is the age of Trump, and so there’s no reason to suppose that dawning awareness is going to be constructive, or even sane.

Enter Veterans on Patrol (VOP). This outfit apparently actually did start out as a veterans advocacy group, but like so many elements in American life, it has been taken over by heavily-armed howling nuts from the far right.

Now, normal people, and by ‘normal’ I mean ‘not in the terminal stages of tertiary syphilis or convinced that their cat is telling them to assassinate Taylor Swift,’ actual normal people might assume that Helene was a pretty clear consequence of a hurricane supercharged by several trillion tons of greenhouse gases which might go where hurricanes frequently go and cause more damage than usual. Normal people might think that because, you know, normal.

But not our demented heroes of the VOP. A sample of their email conversations was in the Guardian today, and it read like this: “The US Military destroyed multiple communities and murdered hundreds by steering Weather Weapon Helene into Appalachia country, what should we do?” The answers offered were “Target military equipment and destroy the [directed energy weapons] easily accessible by the public”; “Destroy power and water lines that feed military bases”; “Locate all Top Brass bold enough to walk in public and detain them for murder”; “ALL 3 ABOVE”.

Well, that seems reasonable. After all, we all know from bad movies on the SciFi channel that one mad general, armed only with a black box the size of a shoe box and powered by a single D cell battery can steer a storm system 500 miles across and containing between 5 to 20×1013 watts of energy (200,000,000,000,000 watts) like it was a Hot Wheels toy and send it a thousand miles inland to strike Moscow.

Rather than accept that what happened is exactly what every climate scientist in the world has been warning will happen for debates, it’s easier to believe something that is nefarious, evil, sinister, and utterly demented.

But VOP has a constructive answer to this: “VOP News is openly requesting the public to provide the locations of all USMIC equipment used to control the weather. We intend to destroy this equipment in order to save lives.”

Yes, and Taylor Swift will be safe just as soon as we round up and kill any and all cats using mind control who don’t like Taylor Swift. What could be easier?

VOP is far from alone in this steadfast lunacy. Millions of Americans believe nonsense like this, and even zanier shit.

It’s not limited to America, or the twenty first century. In Europe in the thirteenth century, the Church hit on the notion that cats were evil and needed to be killed (“Kattenstoet”). The idea caught on, and most of Europe’s cat population was massacred. This allowed the rodent population, a favorite vector for the fleas that cause the plague, to explode.

There probably isn’t a culture on Earth without similar tales of mass idiocy, usually conducted with horrible consequences in their past and even their present.

Humans are all too frequently subject to conspiracy theories and similar idiocies. An uncharitable person might call them gullible, and I’m not feeling particularly charitable. They are gullible, and a lot of them are also mean and destructive and delight in the damage they cause.

The only solution is time, and sometimes even that doesn’t work. Ypres, Belgium, still celebrates Kattenstoet, although in a major victory for humanity and sanity, they now only throw plush toy cats off the belfry. See? Progress is possible, even if humans are involved.

But the madness will continue as America continues to lose its way. Climate scientists and even TV weather presenters get death threats from people who believe they are so intellectually superior they can envision D cell batteries steering hurricanes.

Oddly enough, no matter how many people they round up, the hurricanes will just keep on getting worse.

Obviously, Taylor Swift and the cats are behind that. Right?

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The Dark Age — Once again, dear friends…

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

November 6th 2024

First, I want to apologize to my readers. I really blew it on my forecast on how this election was going to turn out. I’m especially sorry to those who took my forecast in good faith—I’m sure it added to the pain you are feeling now, and I deeply regret that.

I’ve been contemplating overnight and this morning over how I—and others, including the Harris campaign—so totally got it wrong.

I don’t have any real answers and indeed, more questions than I began with. How could such a large number of Hispanics support Trump? He’s made it clear that they are one of his target groups; when he says “illegal immigrants” he’s including Hispanics born here, or naturalized. They’re part of the twenty-two million people he wants to mass deport. He isn’t doing it to “save the economy.” He’s doing it because he’s a bigot, pandering to other bigots.

I don’t understand the self-professed Christians who supported him. He is the antithesis of everything they supposedly stand for.

And most of all, I don’t understand the women who voted for Trump. In seven states, freedom of reproductive choice was on the ballot, and many women in those states voted for reproductive freedom and then went ahead and voted for the man who destroyed that right in the first place!

I underestimated the power of the aggrieved anger that the right wing media—mostly run by plutocrats who wanted to use the mob to destroy the safeguards the constitution has to protect that same mob—and there was one thing I did get right; the economy is extremely strong, but it hasn’t really reached the lower middle class and the poor, even as conditions were beginning to improve.

A friend of mine once told me that revolution and revolt was most likely, not when things were at their bleakest, but when things were starting to improve. He told me that some forty years ago, and a close look at major upheavals throughout history confirms this to be true. Not always, but usually.

I have friends in the scientific community, so I was already aware of an on-going effort to save and secure date In The Event Of. Efforts will be redoubled; some of the incoming administration regard such data as either blasphemous or economically inconvenient.

America is heading for a scientific dark age, but there’s no reason to drag the rest of the world into it.

The Ukraine will be on their own now, along with the states surrounding the genocidal Netanyahu. Trump wants to end NATO, which will give his buddy Putin license to invade much of eastern Europe, and he won’t stop there. The NATO nations need to start gearing up for a war footing NOW. There may be a general war in Europe within two years. The middle east will become a sea of flames, and before his mad reign ends, Netanyahu will have slaughtered millions. Other major nations currently not involved, such as Canada, Japan, India and China—may step in.

America is heading for a geopolitical dark age, but there’s no reason to drag the rest of the world into it.

Project 2025 is alive and well, with all its draconian plans. I was compiling data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today for a Trump-loving client, and it occurred to me to advise him that when this annual task comes due next year, neither I nor the BLS may be around.

America is heading for a governance dark age, but there’s no reason to drag the rest of the world into it.

Putting tariffs on most foreign imports and deliberately destroying over half the agricultural production force isn’t going to lower costs or put food on the table. Destroying nearly all federal jobs is going to create a huge labor surplus. States attempting to fill the huge gaps left will have to double, triple, quadruple taxes.

America is heading for an economic dark age, but there’s no reason to drag the rest of the world into it.

Trump will pursue his mad aim to encourage profligate use of fossil fuels, dooming the already inadequate efforts to mitigate climate change. The world has already entered a catastrophic zone: America is now a major part of the problem.

America is heading for an environmental dark age, but there’s no reason to drag the rest of the world into it.

With the Department of Education gone, public schools will fall prey to the same people who have already benefited from spreading misinformation, disinformation, and slowing the spread of scientific and historical knowledge. Thousands of books will be banned “for the children” and eventually, movies and other forms of communication. Literacy will fall, both by design and through sheer incompetence.

America is heading for an educational dark age, but there’s no reason to drag the rest of the world into it.

Rights will rapidly contract and then vanish altogether. People will be told that the era between 1865 and 2025 was an aberration in American culture, and that life under our caring despots who safeguard our morals and thoughts is what the Founders really intended.

America is heading for a humanitarian dark age, but there’s no reason to drag the rest of the world into it.

Here in California, and other deep blue states, talk of secession is mounting rapidly. It may, in the end, be the only way we can protect ourselves from the libertarian and fundamentalist quagmire that Trump plans. It would mean dissolution of America, and/or civil war. A peaceful way back may not be possible.

America is heading for a dark age, but there’s no reason to drag the rest of the world into it.

To the rest of the world: help us where you can, but remember our leaders will be inimical, and this sort of madness can be contagious.

We’re on our own.

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Helene of Tories — Trump stumps sump dump

Helene of Tories

Trump stumps sump dump

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

September 30th 2024

We’re with you all the way, and if we were there, we’d be helping you,” Trump said. “You’ll be okay.”

He said that the day after Hurricane Helene, by then a tropical depression, had finished wreaking havoc over a quarter of the United States and was coming to a wet fizzley end clear up in Ontario. Helene, as forecast, was a major disaster. The known death toll is mercifully low (91 so far) but the damage will be in the tens of billions of dollars. Many parts of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee were flooded, dozens of roads and freeways washed out, and at least several dams failed.

When I first heard Trump’s latest burst of idiocy, I remembered how he famously “was there to help” in the wake of Hurricane Maria in San Yuan, Puerto Rico in 2017. He tossed paper towels to a group of survivors, an action on a par with dropping packets of chewing gun over an area suffering from famine. The BBC reported it this way: “Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz described his televised meeting with officials as a ‘PR, 17-minute meeting’. The sight of him throwing paper towels to people in the crowd was ‘terrible and abominable’, she added. Mr Trump tweeted it had been a ‘great day’ in Puerto Rico.”

He no doubt would have consoled the people hit by Helene with $10 coupons to use to buy his $500 watches. Trump, after all, is the grift that keeps on grifting.

Trump and the Republicans had waved away reports that Helene was going to be a monster. Part of it stems from their insistence that global warming is just a myth spread by liberals and communists to destroy American capitalism. Part of it is their libertarian fascist drive to convince people that government agencies such as the National Weather Service and NOAA (which runs the vital National Hurricane Center) are just propaganda organs for the left and serve no useful purpose.

As the damage became clear, Trump backtracked in his usual awkward and shameless way, saying, on Sunday, that the storm as “a big monster hurricane” that had “hit a lot harder than anyone even thought possible.” (Anyone except NWS, every reputable meteorologist in the country, and pretty much everyone with enough weather knowledge to know what ‘bombogenesis’ means.)

He criticized Harris for attending weekend “fundraising events with her radical left lunatic donors” in California while the storm hit. “She ought to be down in the area where she should be,” Trump said. I didn’t notice Trump going down there during the storm, did you? In fact, he decided Mar-A-Lago was uncomfortably close to the storm (it wasn’t) and watched from a safe distance—New York.

Per ABC News, “The White House said Harris would visit impacted areas ‘as soon as it is possible without disrupting emergency response operations.’ She also spoke with Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and she received a briefing from Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell while she was traveling.

Trump, of course, can’t be arsed with waiting until emergency response operations have ended and things shift to recovery mode. He’s going to Valdosta Georgia today to swan around. While the water supply is now safe, Valdosta is still under an emergency curfew, much of the town is still flooded, and in addition to the 17 known dead, many more are still missing. He’s going to have his security detail shut down several blocks so he can pose, even as city authorities are begging people, “Text. Don’t Call: Texting leaves lines open for emergencies.” I’m sure he’ll be a big help.

No doubt, Trump will blame Harris for the damage. You know he will. I’ll bet the mortgage he will. As far as he’s concerned, any crisis must be used to blame Harris, real or conjured, natural or caused by Republicans. In Trump World, no crisis should go to waste, and the more dead Americans he can blame on Democrats, the better.

Remember, too that under Project 2025, the Republicans want to eliminate FEMA.

But since FEMA hasn’t yet been removed as part of the GOP’s Ayn Rand’s hellscape America, it’s still massively useful. If you want to help people in the affected areas, go here: https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20240928/how-help-after-hurricane-helene

And if you’re a Trump supporter, stay true to your principles and send rolls of paper towels.

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Trump On The Ladies — Girls, he’ll show you how to be women

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

September 25th, 2024

www.zeppscommentaries.online

From CNN today:

“I always thought women liked me. I never thought I had a problem. But the fake news keeps saying women don’t like me,” Trump said in Indiana, Pennsylvania. “I don’t believe it.”

The former president claimed women are “less safe,” “much poorer” and are “less healthy” now compared to when he was president and vowed to end what he described as their “national nightmare.”

“Because I am your protector. I want to be your protector. As president, I have to be your protector. I hope you don’t make too much of it. I hope the fake news doesn’t go, ‘Oh he wants to be their protector.’ Well, I am. As president, I have to be your protector,” Trump said.

Women, he added, “will be happy, healthy, confident and free. You will no longer be thinking about abortion.”

Well, now, can you little darlings all just calm down now? Uncle Donald is here to protect you from the emotional and hysterical weight of being women, and is going to take care of you all just like your daddies did.

And stop fussing about abortion, for Pete’s sake. Half of you won’t have kids anyway, being over fifty, or under 10, or, you know, ugly. Especially you libbers. Never was such a pack of hairy, ugly wimmin like that. Donald’s gonna get you into the beauty parlor, get you fixed up, make you feel worth while as human beings.

OK. I get accused of having a sick sense of humor. And yeah, that’s true. That gets me in more trouble then just about any other facet of my generally lamentable character.

But in this Age of Trump, there’s a problem with having a sick sense of humor. Events have a way of topping even my darkest comic imaginings.

Trump says he will make women happy, healthy, confident and free. Whew! That’s genius, I couldn’t match that. Andy Kaufman couldn’t match it. Sam Kinnison couldn’t match it. George Carlin would be gobsmacked. I read that, and concluded that either I took far too many drugs in the seventies, or I didn’t take enough.

Even by the standards of Trump and the GOP, this is grotesque. Trump the rapist. Trump the serial adulterer. Trump, the bozo who delighted in humiliating his first wife with his much publicized affair with Marla Maples. Trump, who packed the Supreme Court with religious fascists and crowed loudly when they rescinded a woman’s right to an abortion. Trump, who boasted about being able to “grab them by the pussy.” Trump, who smears and insults nearly any woman who dares challenge him, whether as a political opponent or a reporter asking questions.

As gaslighting goes, it’s unparalleled in its sheer brazenness and scope. Of course, for Trump, it’s just another Monday. At other times, he’s proclaimed himself the great white hope for African Americans, saying he did more for them than any president including Abraham Lincoln. His top example of black people who support him is a howling nut who proclaimed himself “a Black NAZI” and referred to MLK Jr. as “Martin Lucifer Coon.”

Nobody stands for science more than Trump, you know. He had an uncle who attended MIT. Take that, Neil Degrasse Tyson! So when he talks about windmills causing cancer, sharks electrocuting boaters, and climate change being a hoax by AOC to force us all to live in caves, why, he’s speaking as the world’s greatest authority on African Americans, women, sharks, and pets who get eaten. Or something. It’s scientifical, you know.

I imagine that next he’ll address his expertise and compassion for the lives of Asian-Americans and point out he saw all the Charlie Chan movies as a kid.

It’s getting harder to tell how much of this stuff is dementia, and how much is just the same snake-oil bullshit that’s floated Trump through his entire wastrel life. But in the end, that doesn’t matter: Either way, he is totally unfit for office. If he was your grandad, you would be taking away his car keys by now, and keeping a discreet eye on his debit card purchases.

And if you still support Trump at this point, there is something very, very wrong with you.

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Fifty-to-One Odds and Ends — Did Bill Clinton give Harris the election?

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 22nd, 2024

Vivek Ramaswamy was on CNN yesterday bemoaning the fact that Kamala Harris was smearing seventy million GOP voters as ‘weird.’ Even CNN has to fact-check that, noting that Harris had called Trump and Vance weird, which they are. For that matter, Vivek Ramaswamy isn’t exactly a poster boy for normal himself, but moving on…

I spoke to a Trump supporter yesterday who ranted about how Democrats were taking adrenochrome from the bodies of dying babies to keep Biden and the rest young. I pointed out that Biden didn’t look particularly young, and he retorted that Biden would be dead if he wasn’t taking the stuff. Branes. Smart. Logically he runs circles around us all.

Now, adrenochrome actually does exist. Its a result of oxidized adrenaline; 3-hydroxy-1-methyl-2,3-dihydroindole-5,6-dione C9H9NO3). It doesn’t come from the blood of babies, Christian or otherwise.

And as far as prolonging life goes, it’s kinda the opposite: it’s rated extremely toxic, and if taken orally will make you very, very sick and in all likelihood kill you. It would explain why you never hear of Qanon types, who believe morals are something to be inflicted upon others, actually taking the stuff themselves. Ivermectin is safer, but drinking or injecting bleach and shining black lights up your ass are still bad ideas. Add adrenochrome to that list under “Evolution in Action.”

The adrenochrome conspiracy theory came from the bowels of the Qanon conspiracists, and it is nothing more than an update of the Blood Libel. They’ve updated the villains of the piece (elites, Democrats, international bankers) but they mean “Jews.” “Drinking the blood of Christian babies” sounded a bit medieval for their tastes, so they took a sinister-looking chemical name (and one not usually found in babies) and made it generic babies, and sat back and waited for the pogroms to resume.

Yes, Harris was calling Trump and Vance weird, and not Republican voters in general weird. But there’s a lot of them that fit that description. Not seventy million, but millions, at least. There are tens of millions of normal decent Republicans. They’re pretty easy to spot these days: they’re either already ‘never-Trumpers’ or they are openly expressing doubts about Trump and his policies.

Last night the Democratic convention finished its third night with the formal selection of Tim Walz as the vice presidential nominee. Coach Walz is almost ridiculously homespun middle American, straight out of Garrison Keillor’s Lake Wobegon days. Last night may just be the night that Democrats took “real America” back from the Republicans. Only with the Republicans the down-home pose was a vulture capitalist trying to sound like a hillbilly, but with Walz, it’s the real deal. He really is the local coach, the guy who helps change your tires and pulls you out of a snow bank, the neighborhood “Good Sam.”

In the meantime, Trump was snarling to aides that he “hates all of them” – Harris, Walz, the Clintons, and Biden. Ann Coulter, who for some reason doesn’t live north of the wall in Game of Thrones, made a spectacularly pathetic effort to smear Walz’s kids, calling them ‘weird’ for crying with pride at the convention last night.

Even the entertainment showed the richness of the Democrats versus the paucity of the Republicans. “Rocking in the Free World”, a favorite of Walz’s, was played with the full blessing of Neil Young, who has stridently complained about Trump’s appropriation of the song. Stevie Wonder, John Legend, Sheila E and Maren Morris all brought the house down. Oprah spoke to loud cheers. Compare with the RNC, which had a couple of D-listers and played music over the vociferous objections and cease-and-desist orders from the creators of said music. Not just weird—sad.

But it was Bill Clinton, at 78 obviously not drinking many babies but still strident and clear, who came up with the most stunning stat of all, one that will outlive the warm glow of the convention and change the political and economic landscape of the campaign over the next ten weeks.

Donald Trump back about 15 years ago said “I don’t know why, but the economy always does better under the Democrats than it does the Republicans.” It was one of those extremely rare instances where he was describing an irrefutable fact accurately.

It’s true. Wages go up, production goes up, and for America’s plutocrats who have more money than they do common sense, yes, the markets go up as well. Everyone benefits under Democratic economic policies. It’s been that way since 1933. Even government spending is better—the last two presidents to produce a balanced budget were Lyndon Johnson and Bill Clinton. Over nine out of every ten dollars in the national debt come from Republican policies and misadventures.

There aren’t many politicians around who understand economic matters better than Bill Clinton. He is arguably the smartest president we’ve had—not the best judgment, perhaps, but definitely smart.

In his speech, he said he encountered a stat that he couldn’t believe. He had to double check it. He had to triple check it. He was absolutely stunned.

When he recited it, I was equally stunned. I’m nowhere near Clinton’s level of knowledge and expertise, but I read and I pay attention. This was something that floored me.

Clinton said, “Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, America has created about 51 million new jobs. I swear, I checked this three times; even I couldn’t believe it. What’s the score? Democrats 50, Republicans 1.”

Over 98% of all new jobs were created under Democratic administrations. That is extraordinary.

The Democrats have almost all the major issues on their side—abortion, individual freedom, reining in corporate greed, supporting the workers and the poor. But if they want to make serious inroads into the decaying support Republicans get, they need to recite this fact—50 out of 51 million jobs—over and over. Nothing demolishes the myth that Republicans are better for the economy more thoroughly than that one.

Tonight: Harris accepts the nomination. If the evening goes as well as the first three have, this election is hers to lose.

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Turning Up the Burn — Sudden Widespread Catastrophic Warming

Turning Up the Burn

Sudden Widespread Catastrophic Warming

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 4th 2024

www.zeppscommentaries.online

Back about twenty years ago, I was asked to write a piece on the effects global warming would have on our specific locale in the northern California mountains.

Well, an honest essay would have taken five seconds to write: “I don’t know.” I suggested this to my editor, who was unamused and gave me the Editor Glower. So, OK. Write something that won’t be too embarrassing.

I hit on a simple model. Suppose a uniform rise in temperature of three degrees Fahrenheit? Uniform. Every day exactly three degrees warmer than what the latest 30 year model showed as averages for each date.

Of course it was absurd on the face of it. “Average temperature” in the mountains is at best a polite suggestion, and in some years, a bad joke. Well, anywhere, really, but especially in the mountains where the weather is particularly variable. Microclimates rule. “If you don’t like the weather, move over five feet.” The almanacs list “first frost” and “last frost” but in any given year that can vary by six weeks in either direction—or more. “Playing to the averages” is how casinos make money and their customers don’t.

So I took the most simple-minded approach possible. I simply transposed the averages from a town at slightly less than 1,000 feet lower elevation than ours, and described the lengths of seasons, growing seasons, and the effects on regional vegetation. I even shifted the climate/weather bands south, giving us the weather patterns for Seattle. Why not? We already share volcanoes and a snotty attitude towards Los Angeles. One thing I got (sorta) right: even with more rain, there would be more drought. My editor, who normally was scientifically literate, didn’t understand that theory at all.

It made for a dramatic piece, even if it had all the scientific validity of phrenology.

But now it’s 2024, and we’ve just had the hottest month in recorded history. Not just here, but world-wide. Locally, it’s been pretty dramatic. At the time I wrote that piece, the hottest day I had recorded at the house was 98. We broke 100 for the first time in 2012, hit it five times last year, and thirteen times (so far) this year, including our hottest day to date—109. Nights are warmer, as well. Mornings it didn’t get below 60 used to be very rare, happening maybe once every other year. This year we’ve had ten nights where it stayed that warm, including a new record—a low of 69. Perhaps in a few years, I (or somebody) will be musing about how lows above 70 used to be unheard-of.

At least now a lot of local residents understand the concept of transpiration and evaporative rates. We’ve just had two very wet water years, running 150% of normal between them for a total of 150” inches over those two years. The first winter we saw vast amounts of snow—sixteen feet where I live. The reservoirs were all full this spring, the conifers lush and green. A lot of people relaxed a bit, reasoning this would be a mild fire season. People who did know better engaged in frantic brush clearance around the local towns. We have eighteen towns in this county, and ten of them have had major wildfire damage over the past ten years, some of them more than once.

And sure enough, by July 22nd, we were officially listed as being in moderate drought. And we’ve been getting red flag warnings and fire weather advisories. The Park Fire exploded out of Chico’s Bidwell Park, and in just six days became the third biggest fire in California history, racing over the grass, brush and chaparral of the Sierra foothills.

Not only has it been insanely hot, but unusually dry—we haven’t had any measurable rain here since April 25th. So we’re in drought. Imagine if one or both winters had been drier than usual.

Remember that sixteen feet of snow I mentioned? It isn’t a record for the town: we got twenty-two feet in the winter of ‘51-52, nearly all of it in February in two titanic storms. But in recent decades we had seen our annual average drop from fourteen feet in the thirties to just eight feet in the 2010s. Partly that was from the creation of Shasta Lake, which warmed our winters (by way of example, 2022-23 was the coldest winter the town had experienced in thirty years. But in the town’s 140 year history, it was only the 77th coldest winter!) and partly because of prolonged and severe droughts.

That sixteen feet was also a result of global warming. While temperatures between storms were persistently cold, temperatures during the storms were a couple of degrees above normal. And if it was usually 28 degrees when snowing and was now 30, that may not sound like much, but the warmer systems can hold a LOT more water—or in this case, snow. We got very heavy wet snow, both in terms of amount and in terms of water equivalent—the snow was wetter and heavier than normal, and did a fair bit of damage.

So we’re seeing some of the more obvious complications of global warming now, and people are noticing. There’s many more to come, and the ones that worry me are the ones we can’t see coming. But it’s safe to say we won’t like it when they do arrive.

As mentioned, the hot July was world wide. That was already the case before the numbers came in from Antarctica.

Across the entire southern polar ice cap, an area roughly the size of the lower 48, temperatures for the month were a staggering 10 degrees Celsius—or 18 degrees Fahrenheit—above normal. Nobody saw that coming.

To the hundreds of people living there, it probably wasn’t noticeable except on the thermometer readings. After all, it’s deepest darkest winter in July, and there isn’t a whole lot of discernible difference between minus fifty eight and minus forty. Fortunately, this weirding heat wave didn’t reach the coasts of the continent, where temperatures are milder and glaciers and sea ice are already melting at a frightening rate.

A heat increase on that scale was utterly inconceivable. On any other continent, such a thing would cause the deaths of millions and perhaps billions of people. Widespread famine, incredible fire storms, and complete destruction of entire ecosystems would ensue.

So now we have to consider this most terrifying of possibilities: sudden widespread catastrophic warming. I would have considered what happened in Antarctica impossible, along with pretty much all climate scientists. But now that it has happened, what if it happened someplace else in the world?

Writing a simple-minded piece on what effects it would have locally would be pretty easy: Just say, “Death Valley, with a bit of Venus mixed in. And we’re all dead.”

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Daniel in the Liars’ Den — The assault on science and sanity continues

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

February 17th, 2024

www.zeppscommentaries.online

The Guardian on February 14th had a story by Aliya Uteuova with this lede: “Nearly 15% of Americans don’t believe climate change is real, study finds.” The University of Michigan poll continued, “Denialism highest in central and southern US, with Republican voters less likely to believe in climate science.”

My first thought was that this was actually kind of reassuring. Thirty percent of Americans don’t know the Earth revolves around the sun. Forty percent believe in angels. This poll showed that only one in seven respondents were total idiots who couldn’t see irrefutable evidence even as it was biting them on the ass.

It’s been quite a while since I stopped assuming climate denialists—the remaining ones—were acting in any sort of good faith. The ones remaining are getting more strident, perhaps reflecting the more intense propaganda emanating from the filthy fuels industries and the rightwing thinktanks. Certainly I am encountering more in social media, and seeing peripheral effects from the constant attacks on people acknowledging climate change.

Some are easy to ignore. The moment someone starts babbling about how climate change can’t exist because god swill and puny humans can’t change the divine plan, I just block them. They are at best delusional and at worst total morons, and no amount of logic or persuasion is going to convince them that I’m anything other than hellbound, along with Taylor Swift and Joe Biden.

Some parrot the same talking points we’ve been hearing for the past forty years. Climate change isn’t because of volcanoes, sunspots, Milanković cycles, end of an ice age, orbital perturbations, yada yada yada.

If I’m not busy, I’ll stick around to politely and firmly refute the points made. Even if I’m not feeling particularly charitable, I know this approach is by far the most effective. Usually they just run away. Being polite and earnest stymies trolls and confuses the more strident ones who think they can annoy the opposition into making silly mistakes.

Lately, I’ve seen more blatant lies. For instance one claim I saw was that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere dropped by 20% during the pandemic-related shutdown.

Well, that would be lovely. Having the concentrations drop to 340ppm would ensure a habitable Earth 50 years from now. Unfortunately, it isn’t true. The rate of increase dropped by 20% in 2019, but that meant concentrations only increased from 417ppm to 419ppm.

Another claim was that the Harvard Climatology Department had PROVED that the only reason Earth was warming was because we were coming out of an ice age. Needless to say, nobody at Harvard has made any such claim, and the records indicate that, if anything, we probably would be going into an ice age about now.

However, with greenhouse gases at their current levels, no ice ages are in the offing, no matter what they might do for Ray Romano’s career.

But it’s the residual ripple effects of the propaganda that can be the most pernicious. The public at large has a mistrust of scientists, one carefully fostered by fundamentalists, oil-industry flacks, and the National Association of Zealots and Ideologues, ie, the galaxy of think tanks, radio show hosts, big churches, and Faux news and its clones, and the poison blogosphere.

The other day, just as a reminder that their standard tactics of smearing and lying have become more expensive, climate scientist Michael Mann won a million-dollar defamation suit against conservative bloggers who accused him of falsifying data and once compared him to a convicted child abuser.

A few days ago, I passed along a link to an article that Stanford Magazine did about Dr. Daniel Swain to some friends. It was a good article, and Swain’s expertise would be useful for that group.

But I got one response that caused my jaw to drop. “He’s a media whore,” my friend wrote.

Now, my friend has been a bit tetchy ever since the Dodgers signed Ohtani and Yamamoto. And while the article itself was well done, the magazine cover was, to put it mildly, a bit over the top. It portrayed a colossal Daniel Swain a good half a mile tall, striding through heavily-forested foothills, his head well above the clouds. I could see where someone might detect a slightly fawning note from Stanford, based on that cover. And from that, it could be inferred that it suggested the sort of treatment Swain might be expecting from the press.

Except I’ve been a regular on his blog, weatherwest.com, for most of a decade. I was familiar with his style and approach from before he became famous. (The way he became famous was unlikely in the extreme. In trying to describe a persistent blocking high in the Gulf of Alaska that was causing a massive drought in California, he coined the phrase “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge.” It caught the popular imagination. Now, only Swain knows if he ever actually sought fame, but I seriously doubt he sat up in bed one restless night and shouted, “I know! I’ll coin an awkwardly alliterative analogy! Eureka!”)

Swain does appreciate the opportunity to convey his expertise to the world. He puts in long hours doing just that—not just interviews, but in serious scholastic research and considerable effort in keeping his relatively small audience on his blog well informed, and encourages others of similar expertise to contribute freely.

I know a couple of people who are well known and who are media whores. They constantly self-promote, resent anything resembling competition, and pretend they have the answers. They’re depressingly easy to spot. I find them annoying.

But Swain is not one of them.

Indeed, the same day I had that email exchange, he did one of his “office hours” on YouTube. Anyone watching those quickly realizes that this is not a man basking in the effusive glow of public acclaim. As he often does, he was fielding questions from the chat thread, and he got one about Rossby waves. Those are defined as a “large horizontal atmospheric undulation that is associated with the polar-front jet stream and separates cold polar air from warm tropical air.” per Brittanica. There’s a hypothesis that decreasing ice cover in the Arctic Ocean and subsequent warming has caused the waves to increase in amplitude and decrease in frequency, allowing polar air to sweep into the middle latitudes. It caught the media’s fancy, since it was a handy explanation of big cold snaps in the midst of a warming climate. I admit I’ve based arguments on that myself.

Swain said that while he generally accepted the thinking behind the hypothesis, there just wasn’t any solid evidence that it was happening at this time. It was a very ‘Daniel’ sort of answer. If there isn’t a solid, concrete answer, he won’t hesitate to say so, and go on to discuss the elements that prevent a hard-and-fast answer. It’s exactly the sort of response a responsible scientist would give.

Certainty in the face of randomness and complexity is the mark of a charlatan.

But it’s not an answer a media whore—or any whore—should give. Don’t tell the marks what they need to know; tell them what they want to hear! It’s rule number one. If I was Swain’s unscrupulous agent, I would draw him aside and say, “Son, you’re doing it all wrong. I say, I say, son, you don’t get the return business if you’re saying things to the John like ‘You call that loving, mister? You sound like a Yugo with a flat tire!’ or ‘Oh, come on. That thing looks like the ghost of a poison mushroom. Can’t you at least paint it orange like the original?’ Nah, you gotta make them happy. Make ‘em feel big, y’know? Now, let’s hear your ecstatic moan.”

OK, he wouldn’t benefit from having me as an agent. Or as he might put it, I would be a “piss poor pimp.”

So why does a guy who normally is responsible, reasonably liberal, and scientifically literate declare a scientist who is the antithesis of a publicity hound a “media whore?”

Inculcation. Propaganda. The public at large is inclined to assume the worst of any responsible figure who challenges the present public gestalt.

That current gestalt is very toxic indeed. It’s pervasive, and manages to be both blatant and subtle at the same time. People honestly believe George Soros is giving scientists billions of dollars to push us all back to the stone age by destroying technology. And people don’t realize the people promoting such ideas are spending billions in order to protect trillions in profits made at our expense. It has to stop.

There’s no quick cure to it. It will take time. The parties dumping the poison into public discourse have to be called out, again and again, their lies shown for what they are, and the vacuity of their attacks exposed.

George Orwell once said, “In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” He also said, “Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four.” It is not the freedom to say two plus two make five.

Be a revolutionary. Tell the truth, no matter how much people don’t want to hear it. Be like Dr. Daniel Swain.

In America, the number of people accepting the truth of climate change has climbed to 85%. Keep telling the truth, and truth will prevail.

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