Month: August 2024

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Home Stretch — Putting on the afterburners

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 26th 2024

David McAfee at Raw Story noticed a seminal remark posted by Adam Kinzinger, former Republican Congressman that utterly captures the deep change in the political landscape that we’ve seen over the past six weeks or so.

“‘Something happened at the DNC that will be written about for years.” the ex-lawmaker said. ‘Donald Trump has given up traditional Republican ground, and the Democrats and Kamala snatched it up. Trump gave up being the defense candidate by becoming weak and panicked, and embracing Russia.’

“Kinzinger went on to say that that Harris ‘said she wants to make the most lethal military ever and stand up to dictators. Trump gave up being the proud American party. They hate America which is obvious to all but the most loyal MAGA. Kamala showed her pride in the country AS IT IS TODAY, not pining for the 1950s. Trump gave up being the border hawk. While this will take time to recognize, I believe cracks have started. Kamala reminded everyone that Trump tanked the hawkish border bill, and committed to signing it (in front of a loudly cheering crowd).

‘Trump ceded the ground of opportunity and vision. His constant whining and focus on the past. Kamala showed a forward looking vision. Trump gave up law and order. Not just on Jan 6, but attacking The FBI, questioning the CIA, and calling for violence. And now an awards ceremony for Jan 6 criminals. Kamala showed appreciation for police and stressed her role as a prosecutor. The Dems are now on their way to being the Patriotic, USA chanting, America loving party, and the Republicans look like the bitter old men who are angry that the country is vibrant and dynamic.;”

I had noticed that even with the joy and inclusiveness and cheers, a lot of what Democrats had to say reminded me of some of the speeches we would hear at RNC conventions in 2004 or 2008. It was an era where Republicans hadn’t embraced meanness, cruelty, exclusiveness and bigotry as their standards.

The horrific thing is that this is about all that the GOP have remaining. They’ve lost all the “issues” they hoped to run on: Biden’s age, the economy, inflation, national pride, abortion, crime. Everything improved under Biden except his age. And most Republicans are coming to realize that the golden apple of tearing down Roe v. Wade in fact was a poisoned apple, turning most of the country against them.

My friend Isaac Peterson of the Weasels wrote me, saying, “It doesn’t help matters that Trump is incapable of even giving the appearance of being able to accommodate anybody outside of his base. He just doesn’t give a shit about anybody else and it shows. I still believe his NABJ BS was intended to appeal to them rather than black voters.

“He can’t appeal to anybody else because he doesn’t care about anybody else and his lack of empathy means he just cannot relate to anybody else. Definitely not enough to try to communicate on their (our) terms or to even acknowledge their (our) concerns. His contempt comes through loud and clear.

“His flocks of howler monkeys can’t recognize he doesn’t even actually care about them either.”

If Trump didn’t have enough problems, a fair chunk of his base are furious because he isn’t vicious and fascistic enough. The zealots are mad because he backed away from a pledge to make abortion illegal in all states. The National Association of Zealots and Ideologues are mad because he backed away from their treasured Project 2025. And the bigots are furious because he suggested the US should allow aliens with college degrees in and even give them green cards.

Bad enough that with this lot, Trump gets up with fleas, but they all growl loudly when he tries to brush the fleas off.

As a result, Trump is floundering in a no-mans’-land between MAGA and the rest of America, and he’s bleeding support from both sides.

The DNC and Kamala Harris (her campaign has blue hats emblazoned with “ , la “) came out of the convention with a three point lead nationally over Trump, and small leads in most of the battleground states. The convention “bounce” (which Trump didn’t get) will show up in next week’s polls, and I expect to see her leading by five to seven points, and nearly all of the battleground states. That will fade as the warm glow from the convention dies.

But not fade away. We’re in the final stretch now, ten weeks left, and it’s going to be one furious fight.

There’s already speculation about “October surprises.” Which is shorthand for dirty tricks, and by no means limited to October. The allegations and rumors will get more and more lurid. I already heard one today that had Trump dumping JD Vance as his running mate and selecting Robert Kennedy Junior. That one’s so crazy I suspect it may have come from the Democrats. Trump tried snarling that Tim Walz was only an ASSISTANT coach, and in a brilliant riposte, the Dems replied, “Maybe that’s why he’s running for VICE president.”

I feel disquiet about the flag waving and bellows of “USA! USA!” Pep rally patriotism is a dark lake a thousand miles wide and an inch deep, and can turn toxic with the slightest change in the wind. I’m hoping that once clear of the convention, the flag-waving will subside to thoughtful patriotism.

In the meantime, keep an eye on Joe Biden. Yes, he’s a lame duck, but he IS still the president, and he still has the acumen and abilities that made him the most successful one-term president in American history. He may have an October surprise or two up his sleeve, and it won’t be the sort of nasty ones like sabotaging the Vietnam Paris talks or the hostage release with Iran or the email like we’ve seen in years past. Biden has a “Nuthin’ up my sleeve, Rocky” air about him. He’s up to something. Whatever it is, I suspect we’ll like it.

So. Off to the races. And may the best woman win!

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Fifty-to-One Odds and Ends — Did Bill Clinton give Harris the election?

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 22nd, 2024

Vivek Ramaswamy was on CNN yesterday bemoaning the fact that Kamala Harris was smearing seventy million GOP voters as ‘weird.’ Even CNN has to fact-check that, noting that Harris had called Trump and Vance weird, which they are. For that matter, Vivek Ramaswamy isn’t exactly a poster boy for normal himself, but moving on…

I spoke to a Trump supporter yesterday who ranted about how Democrats were taking adrenochrome from the bodies of dying babies to keep Biden and the rest young. I pointed out that Biden didn’t look particularly young, and he retorted that Biden would be dead if he wasn’t taking the stuff. Branes. Smart. Logically he runs circles around us all.

Now, adrenochrome actually does exist. Its a result of oxidized adrenaline; 3-hydroxy-1-methyl-2,3-dihydroindole-5,6-dione C9H9NO3). It doesn’t come from the blood of babies, Christian or otherwise.

And as far as prolonging life goes, it’s kinda the opposite: it’s rated extremely toxic, and if taken orally will make you very, very sick and in all likelihood kill you. It would explain why you never hear of Qanon types, who believe morals are something to be inflicted upon others, actually taking the stuff themselves. Ivermectin is safer, but drinking or injecting bleach and shining black lights up your ass are still bad ideas. Add adrenochrome to that list under “Evolution in Action.”

The adrenochrome conspiracy theory came from the bowels of the Qanon conspiracists, and it is nothing more than an update of the Blood Libel. They’ve updated the villains of the piece (elites, Democrats, international bankers) but they mean “Jews.” “Drinking the blood of Christian babies” sounded a bit medieval for their tastes, so they took a sinister-looking chemical name (and one not usually found in babies) and made it generic babies, and sat back and waited for the pogroms to resume.

Yes, Harris was calling Trump and Vance weird, and not Republican voters in general weird. But there’s a lot of them that fit that description. Not seventy million, but millions, at least. There are tens of millions of normal decent Republicans. They’re pretty easy to spot these days: they’re either already ‘never-Trumpers’ or they are openly expressing doubts about Trump and his policies.

Last night the Democratic convention finished its third night with the formal selection of Tim Walz as the vice presidential nominee. Coach Walz is almost ridiculously homespun middle American, straight out of Garrison Keillor’s Lake Wobegon days. Last night may just be the night that Democrats took “real America” back from the Republicans. Only with the Republicans the down-home pose was a vulture capitalist trying to sound like a hillbilly, but with Walz, it’s the real deal. He really is the local coach, the guy who helps change your tires and pulls you out of a snow bank, the neighborhood “Good Sam.”

In the meantime, Trump was snarling to aides that he “hates all of them” – Harris, Walz, the Clintons, and Biden. Ann Coulter, who for some reason doesn’t live north of the wall in Game of Thrones, made a spectacularly pathetic effort to smear Walz’s kids, calling them ‘weird’ for crying with pride at the convention last night.

Even the entertainment showed the richness of the Democrats versus the paucity of the Republicans. “Rocking in the Free World”, a favorite of Walz’s, was played with the full blessing of Neil Young, who has stridently complained about Trump’s appropriation of the song. Stevie Wonder, John Legend, Sheila E and Maren Morris all brought the house down. Oprah spoke to loud cheers. Compare with the RNC, which had a couple of D-listers and played music over the vociferous objections and cease-and-desist orders from the creators of said music. Not just weird—sad.

But it was Bill Clinton, at 78 obviously not drinking many babies but still strident and clear, who came up with the most stunning stat of all, one that will outlive the warm glow of the convention and change the political and economic landscape of the campaign over the next ten weeks.

Donald Trump back about 15 years ago said “I don’t know why, but the economy always does better under the Democrats than it does the Republicans.” It was one of those extremely rare instances where he was describing an irrefutable fact accurately.

It’s true. Wages go up, production goes up, and for America’s plutocrats who have more money than they do common sense, yes, the markets go up as well. Everyone benefits under Democratic economic policies. It’s been that way since 1933. Even government spending is better—the last two presidents to produce a balanced budget were Lyndon Johnson and Bill Clinton. Over nine out of every ten dollars in the national debt come from Republican policies and misadventures.

There aren’t many politicians around who understand economic matters better than Bill Clinton. He is arguably the smartest president we’ve had—not the best judgment, perhaps, but definitely smart.

In his speech, he said he encountered a stat that he couldn’t believe. He had to double check it. He had to triple check it. He was absolutely stunned.

When he recited it, I was equally stunned. I’m nowhere near Clinton’s level of knowledge and expertise, but I read and I pay attention. This was something that floored me.

Clinton said, “Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, America has created about 51 million new jobs. I swear, I checked this three times; even I couldn’t believe it. What’s the score? Democrats 50, Republicans 1.”

Over 98% of all new jobs were created under Democratic administrations. That is extraordinary.

The Democrats have almost all the major issues on their side—abortion, individual freedom, reining in corporate greed, supporting the workers and the poor. But if they want to make serious inroads into the decaying support Republicans get, they need to recite this fact—50 out of 51 million jobs—over and over. Nothing demolishes the myth that Republicans are better for the economy more thoroughly than that one.

Tonight: Harris accepts the nomination. If the evening goes as well as the first three have, this election is hers to lose.

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Biden’s Big Night — As Kamala tans the hide of Trump

Biden’s Big Night

As Kamala tans the hide of Trump

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 20th 2024

www.zeppscommentaries.online

Political conventions after the last contested convention in 1980 have tended to be yawn fests, in particular those where the nominee is already the incumbent president. Everyone marvels at the (largely imaginary) accomplishments of the administration, chant ‘four more years,’ dutifully vote, and then go back to the hotel to schmooze and get laid.

And in this century, if something does happen that’s unusual or vivid, I can just go watch the video on YouTube and get caught up.

I’ll often have a convention on the screen but in the background, since there are often people I want to listen to, either because I respect them or I’m at least curious (one young black senate hopeful in 2004 caught my attention, fellow named Barack Obama).

This year I didn’t turn on the GOP cult fest at all, figuring that Trump and his stooges gaslight, lie to and lie about me and everyone else enough as it is, and I don’t need the aggravation. I wasn’t even curious about Vance, figuring (correctly) that he was just a corrupt creep. Even if I had never heard of him before, anyone wanting the job as Trump’s mini-me had to have something seriously wrong with them. I expected a dishonest hatefest, and that’s exactly what they delivered.

With the Democratic convention, I figured to pay attention when Joe Biden spoke. I’d heard the rumors swirling around, mostly from the right, that Biden was forced out of the race very much against his will. Some of the crazier members of the GOP whispered that Biden being ousted was somehow unconstitutional. Like the GOP has any respect for the Constitution.

Certainly the Democratic Party would put on a show, mostly heartfelt, honoring Biden as a revered party elder and an unusually effective president. They wouldn’t have to fake that at all.

I’ve been watching Biden since about 1980, and my take is that he’s a good actor with an excellent poker face (both very nearly prequisites for a political career) but essentially honest. His only real scandal was the plagiarism flap in 1980, and he dealt with that by dropping out of the race and apologizing. At the time I felt it spoke well of the man; he admitted his wrong doing and atoned.

He was too centrist for me politically (a view I still held in 2020) but all in all, a decent man. I supported Sanders in 2020, but had no trouble switching to Biden, especially given the vile alternative.

So my main reason to tune in was to catch the Biden speech.

Somewhat to our surprise, we found ourselves riveted from the opening gavel. The Guardian’s Sam Levin described it thusly: “Speakers from red states gave personal accounts of the impacts of abortion bans. Hadley Duvall, from Kentucky, described how she was raped by her stepfather and became pregnant at age 12: ‘I can’t imagine not having a choice. But today, that’s the reality for many women and girls across the country because of Donald Trump’s abortion bans.’ She noted Trump’s previous remarks calling abortion bans a ‘beautiful thing’: ‘What is so beautiful about a child having to carry her parent’s child?’

“Speakers also repeatedly tied the Trump and the Republican agenda to Project 2025, the roadmap for a second Trump administration crafted by former Trump officials. Mallory McMorrow, a state senator from Michigan, held a copy of the Project 2025 document and assailed the plan to ‘turn Donald Trump into a dictator’. Congressman Jim Clyburn called Project 2025 ‘Jim Crow 2.0’. Biden noted that the project calls for the dismantling of the US department of education.”

David Smith and Kira Lerner reported, “Jamie Raskin, a representative from Maryland who served on the January 6 committee and led Trump’s second impeachment, said reelecting Trump would bring America ‘back to the days of election suppression and violent insurrection’. He suggested making Harris’ victory so large that even Trump and his allies can’t try to steal the election.

“Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky who was a vice-presidential contender, focused his speech on Harris and Tim Walz’ support for reproductive rights. Republican abortion ‘policies give rapists more rights than their victims’, he said. And Senator Raphael Warnock from Georgia spoke about the need to protect democracy, invoking his faith to denounce Trump.

“I saw him holding the Bible, and endorsing a Bible, as if it needed his endorsement. He should try reading it,” Warnock said. ‘It says, do justice, love kindness and walk humbly with your God. He should try reading it. It says, love your neighbor as yourself.’”

Kamala Harris showed up unexpectedly and said, “Joe, thank you for your historic leadership, for your lifetime of service to our nation, and for all you will continue to do, we are forever grateful to you. Thank you, Joe!” She wore a tan suit, notoriously a red flag to the professional scandal-mongers of the GOP.

Hilary Clinton and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gave vivid barn-burner speeches, a women of the party’s recent past passing a torch to a woman of the party’s future and both lavishing praise on the woman of the moment, Kamala Harris.

Then it was Biden time. His daughter, Ashley, took center stage and gave a moving account of the life with her father and expressing her deep pride, leaving the place (including Joe Biden) in tears. Then first lady Doctor Jill Biden, in an amazing silver dress, orated, praising her husband and his work.

Then it was Biden’s turn. He gave the speech of his life! There was nothing of the tired and sick old man who failed to shut down the psychopathic Trump in the debate. He expressed his deep pride in his accomplishments, his faith in Kamala Harris, and his love and respect of country. There was nothing defensive in how he described his record, and his support of Harris was full-throated and enthusiasic. He seems to like the role of honored elder who is stepping back for the good of the country and feels he has left it to capable hands. He blistered the liar Trump and his cultish followers, and told America to vote or lose everything.

He may have needed persuasion to drop out of the race, but he wasn’t forced. He did it, just as he did in 1980, because it was the right thing to do and for the good of the country. It cemented his legacy of being one of the American greats.

Meanwhile, he is still president, and will be until January of next year. He negotiated a complex six way prisoner swap with Russia, and is actively involved in a possible ceasefire in the Gaza genocide, and helping Ukraine’s efforts to drive out the invading Russians. The economy, the best one in over 50 years, is running smoothly, a result of his efforts to rein in predatory capitalists and encourage domestic investment and manufacturing.

I don’t know if Republicans were thinking of digging up that 44 year old scandal about plagiarism. It would be moot now, I suppose. But Trump ruined that approach for them anyway, posting a faked video of Taylor Swift seemingly endorsing Trump. What he hoped to gain from it other than being cruel is a mystery, but it’s a far worse dishonest theft than Biden’s scandal. Swift is probably furious, and her millions of fans are ready to ride Trump out of town on a rail. In a campaign marked by endless stupid and nasty moves, this one of Trump’s hits a new low in the sewer pipes of his mind.

So: the party is united, Joe has been honored and will keep on working, and tonight should be fascinating as hell.”

It’s “Republicans for Harris” night, staring members of the Trump administration and former leaders of Congress.

This will be fun.

 

 

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The Trump Grump — Claiming Harris-ment?

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 14th, 2024

www.zeppscommentaries.online

I had fun (or some equivalent word that carries the same meaning as “enjoying getting a root canal”) watching the Trump/Vance show with Mark Robinson in North Carolina today. No, I wasn’t in North Carolina. It’s August, and I’m not nuts. That’s just where the rally was.

Now, Robinson himself is a real piece of work. He attained his political philosophy from reading the gospel of Saint Limbaugh of the Rushes, and just sort of went downhill from there. He is true to those teachings, I’m sad to say. He’s opposed to abortion under all circumstances, unless one of those circumstances happens to be that Mark Robinson is the daddy. He denies climate change, and wants marijuana consumption to be a felony. He prattles on about the Rothschilds and “international bankers” which is a red flag to any Jew. Robinson also wrote: “this foolishness about Hitler disarming MILLIONS of Jews and then marching them off to concentration camps is a bunch of hogwash,” and “There is a REASON the liberal media fills the airwaves with programs about the NAZI and the ‘6 million Jews’ they murdered.” (Caps are his, a grammatical twitch he shares with Trump.)

“There’s no reason anybody anywhere in America should be telling any child about transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth. And yes I called it filth. And if you don’t like that I called it filth, come see me and I’ll explain it to you.” He also wants to end the separation of church and state in public schools.

OK. He seems nice. He’s a big part of Trump’s outreach to minorities, you know. He was Trump’s second choice for that job, but then it came to light that his first choice, Uncle Ruckus, was a fictional character.

The Trump campaign billed today’s rally as being a major policy address on the economy. Trump addressed that with the laser-like focus that we’ve all learned to associate with him, telling the small crowd he was “not sure” he agreed that the economy is the most important issue of the election. I guess he got the news that inflation was 0.2% for the past three months, and that the polls showed people had more faith in the Democratic Party to manage the economy—the first such result in nearly twenty years. So suddenly the economy is no big deal. Trumpkins, write that down. It will be on the final exam.

Trump said he would cut gas and energy prices in half. No, really. He said that. But that noble determination and vision that is the Trump trademark caused him to add, “If it doesn’t work out, you’ll say, ‘Oh well, I voted for him. I still got it down a lot.’” No, really. He said THAT, too. Gas production is at record heights right now, and gas prices are lower than they were in 2021. I begin to understand why Trump doesn’t want to get into the nuts and bolts of economics.

A few years ago, Trump said, “The economy always seems to be better under Democrats than it is under Republicans. It shouldn’t be, but it is.” That was before he entered politics and still had most of his marbles.

He doubled down, quite literally, on the tariffs he wants to impose. It had been a 10% tariff on all imports. Now he wants it to be 20%.I devoted an entire essay to that notion a couple of months ago, detailing what a catastrophic mess it would make of the economy. All I said then, times two.

He also said the day he takes office there will be the biggest economic boom. “It will be a boom,” he promised. Um, yeah. OK.

Trump also praised his sit-down with Elon Musk, saying it was “one of the most successful shows ever done”. Watching him discuss climate change with the nepo baby who runs Ex-twitter brought to mind the phrase “Beavis and Butthead try to work the microwave.” If stupidity could alleviate climate change, those two would have us in an ice age by now.

Trump also stopped to mock Harris’ laugh. He’s on safe ground there: Nobody has ever seen him laugh, and I’m not convinced he understands why people laugh. Perhaps he thinks it’s from an itchy nose, or a sort of cough only the uncouth engage in.

The rest of his “policy statement” was the usual mish-mash of lies and smears.

Meanwhile, Shady JD continued his own particular charm offensive. Today’s offering was his opinion that the role of post-menopausal women was to be baby sitters. After all, if they can’t pump out babies, of what use are they?

While Vance hasn’t agreed to it yet, Tim Walz and CBS News have agreed to a vice presidential debate on October 1st. Walz said, “I’ve got to tell you. I can’t wait to debate the guy. That is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up,” The chesterfield jokes, admittedly unfair, are slowly dying down and will go away. Or you might say, “Sofa, so good.”

Trump is trying to lay the groundwork for challenging Harris’ candidacy, arguing that switching candidates in mid campaign is unconstitutional. It’s not, of course. In fact, the constitution doesn’t mention political parties at all. Quite a few of the Founders were hoping political parties wouldn’t arise in the first place, and originally, it was set up so whoever got the second-most votes in a presidential election automatically became the vice-president. George Washington considered the costs of having to hire a food taster and suggested an alternate approach might be tied. But Trump is lining up ways to seize office no matter how the vote goes. And he has some of the most powerful scumbags in the country behind him.

So even though things are going Harris’ way for now, don’t let down your guard. Even if Trump is an insensate drooler by election day, there are some who want him as a figurehead. Be vigilant.

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Turning Up the Burn — Sudden Widespread Catastrophic Warming

Turning Up the Burn

Sudden Widespread Catastrophic Warming

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 4th 2024

www.zeppscommentaries.online

Back about twenty years ago, I was asked to write a piece on the effects global warming would have on our specific locale in the northern California mountains.

Well, an honest essay would have taken five seconds to write: “I don’t know.” I suggested this to my editor, who was unamused and gave me the Editor Glower. So, OK. Write something that won’t be too embarrassing.

I hit on a simple model. Suppose a uniform rise in temperature of three degrees Fahrenheit? Uniform. Every day exactly three degrees warmer than what the latest 30 year model showed as averages for each date.

Of course it was absurd on the face of it. “Average temperature” in the mountains is at best a polite suggestion, and in some years, a bad joke. Well, anywhere, really, but especially in the mountains where the weather is particularly variable. Microclimates rule. “If you don’t like the weather, move over five feet.” The almanacs list “first frost” and “last frost” but in any given year that can vary by six weeks in either direction—or more. “Playing to the averages” is how casinos make money and their customers don’t.

So I took the most simple-minded approach possible. I simply transposed the averages from a town at slightly less than 1,000 feet lower elevation than ours, and described the lengths of seasons, growing seasons, and the effects on regional vegetation. I even shifted the climate/weather bands south, giving us the weather patterns for Seattle. Why not? We already share volcanoes and a snotty attitude towards Los Angeles. One thing I got (sorta) right: even with more rain, there would be more drought. My editor, who normally was scientifically literate, didn’t understand that theory at all.

It made for a dramatic piece, even if it had all the scientific validity of phrenology.

But now it’s 2024, and we’ve just had the hottest month in recorded history. Not just here, but world-wide. Locally, it’s been pretty dramatic. At the time I wrote that piece, the hottest day I had recorded at the house was 98. We broke 100 for the first time in 2012, hit it five times last year, and thirteen times (so far) this year, including our hottest day to date—109. Nights are warmer, as well. Mornings it didn’t get below 60 used to be very rare, happening maybe once every other year. This year we’ve had ten nights where it stayed that warm, including a new record—a low of 69. Perhaps in a few years, I (or somebody) will be musing about how lows above 70 used to be unheard-of.

At least now a lot of local residents understand the concept of transpiration and evaporative rates. We’ve just had two very wet water years, running 150% of normal between them for a total of 150” inches over those two years. The first winter we saw vast amounts of snow—sixteen feet where I live. The reservoirs were all full this spring, the conifers lush and green. A lot of people relaxed a bit, reasoning this would be a mild fire season. People who did know better engaged in frantic brush clearance around the local towns. We have eighteen towns in this county, and ten of them have had major wildfire damage over the past ten years, some of them more than once.

And sure enough, by July 22nd, we were officially listed as being in moderate drought. And we’ve been getting red flag warnings and fire weather advisories. The Park Fire exploded out of Chico’s Bidwell Park, and in just six days became the third biggest fire in California history, racing over the grass, brush and chaparral of the Sierra foothills.

Not only has it been insanely hot, but unusually dry—we haven’t had any measurable rain here since April 25th. So we’re in drought. Imagine if one or both winters had been drier than usual.

Remember that sixteen feet of snow I mentioned? It isn’t a record for the town: we got twenty-two feet in the winter of ‘51-52, nearly all of it in February in two titanic storms. But in recent decades we had seen our annual average drop from fourteen feet in the thirties to just eight feet in the 2010s. Partly that was from the creation of Shasta Lake, which warmed our winters (by way of example, 2022-23 was the coldest winter the town had experienced in thirty years. But in the town’s 140 year history, it was only the 77th coldest winter!) and partly because of prolonged and severe droughts.

That sixteen feet was also a result of global warming. While temperatures between storms were persistently cold, temperatures during the storms were a couple of degrees above normal. And if it was usually 28 degrees when snowing and was now 30, that may not sound like much, but the warmer systems can hold a LOT more water—or in this case, snow. We got very heavy wet snow, both in terms of amount and in terms of water equivalent—the snow was wetter and heavier than normal, and did a fair bit of damage.

So we’re seeing some of the more obvious complications of global warming now, and people are noticing. There’s many more to come, and the ones that worry me are the ones we can’t see coming. But it’s safe to say we won’t like it when they do arrive.

As mentioned, the hot July was world wide. That was already the case before the numbers came in from Antarctica.

Across the entire southern polar ice cap, an area roughly the size of the lower 48, temperatures for the month were a staggering 10 degrees Celsius—or 18 degrees Fahrenheit—above normal. Nobody saw that coming.

To the hundreds of people living there, it probably wasn’t noticeable except on the thermometer readings. After all, it’s deepest darkest winter in July, and there isn’t a whole lot of discernible difference between minus fifty eight and minus forty. Fortunately, this weirding heat wave didn’t reach the coasts of the continent, where temperatures are milder and glaciers and sea ice are already melting at a frightening rate.

A heat increase on that scale was utterly inconceivable. On any other continent, such a thing would cause the deaths of millions and perhaps billions of people. Widespread famine, incredible fire storms, and complete destruction of entire ecosystems would ensue.

So now we have to consider this most terrifying of possibilities: sudden widespread catastrophic warming. I would have considered what happened in Antarctica impossible, along with pretty much all climate scientists. But now that it has happened, what if it happened someplace else in the world?

Writing a simple-minded piece on what effects it would have locally would be pretty easy: Just say, “Death Valley, with a bit of Venus mixed in. And we’re all dead.”

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The Trump Dump — No matter how high you pile garbage, it has a downhill side as well

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

July 31st, 2024

www.zeppscommentaries.online

It’s truly impossible to describe how bad a month the Trump campaign has had. Oh, I’ll try anyway.

A month ago today, Trump was riding high. He had just had a debate with Joe Biden that by any reasonable metric, Trump lost badly, offering nothing in the way of policy or ideas and just offering the usual melange of lies and smears that seems to be the extent of his campaigning philosophy. But Biden, suffering a cold, faltered badly, and the press declared Trump the winner, more or less by default. The Biden campaign was crippled, and people were declaring it DOA.

As the nation obsessed over Biden’s age and health, Trump went on the road, campaigning vigorously. By mid month, polls were showing him leading in most of the battleground states.

Then on the 13th, he was grazed by a bullet. While the wound was minor, the peril was very real, and the showman Trump had enough presence of mind to strike a heroic pose and shout “Fight! Fight! Fight!” as Secret Service agents tried frantically to get him to safety.

Then on the 15th, the Republicans held their national convention. It was only here the first cracks in what was to prove a catastrophic collapse appeared. First, Trump announced the day before the convention that he had picked JD Vance as his running mate. JD himself, an unlikeable extremist, was a decision that bespoke the high level of Trump’s confidence. He felt no need to reach outside his base. Vance, unnatural offspring of Ted Cruz and Stephen Miller, was red meat for the base. Much of the rest of the country recoiled.

The timing was strange, as well. The VP choice was about the only element of suspense the convention had. Trump could have assured himself of more viewers if he had waited to the end of his acceptance speech to announce that Vance was his running mate.

The speech was the next crack. He promised a speech of unity and moderation, and that lasted about ten minutes. Then it was back to the usual fest of angry lies and sneers.

The public didn’t have time to consider these mistakes before the next windfall came for Trump.

Biden announced on July 21st that he was dropping out, and at first did not announce who he would suggest to succeed him, leaving the possibility of an open convention, a politically disastrous event.

For the first time, I felt Trump, despite everything, could win. Trump clearly felt the same way.

It’s no exaggeration to refer to the rise of the Harris campaign as the Kamala Harris Miracle. Trump had, though complete fault of his own, failed to capitalize on the good will that came from getting shot at, having a convention, naming a young newcomer his VP running mate, and driving his opponent out of the race. At at time when he should have been able to put the race away, he began to lose ground.

It was incremental. He was secretive and sneaky about his medical condition following the shooting, and simultaneously tried to capitalize on it in pure Trump style, with tacky, vastly overpriced pair of sneaks with his “heroic pose” image. His acceptance speech angered his detractors and put his supporters to sleep. Vance quickly proved to be a major political blunder, as some of his statements and flaws came out. Project 2025, basically a Mein Kampf for the 21st century, rose in the public consciousness, and despite Trump’s frantic efforts to rebrand it as Agenda 47 and then disown it altogether, dragged on him. Most of the creators of that manifesto were Trump people, past, present and future.

If he had hoped to drive Biden out in disgrace, it backfired. Biden is being treated (rightly) as an honored elder, and suddenly it’s Trump under scrutiny for his mental and physical (and psychological) fitness.

Stories about Vance, some lurid and some true, spread like wild fire. Trump compulsively babbled nonsense about Hannibal Lecter and sharks. The Harris campaign gleefully framed their race as The Prosecutor versus the Felon.

Today, however, the Trump campaign essentially collapsed. Trump elected to do a press conference / town hall with the National Association of Black Journalists. The moderators made it clear they weren’t going to throw softballs, and Trump just came apart at the seams. He told the crowd he was the best president for African Americans since Abraham Lincoln. He said that Kamala Harris was always “just Indian” and had only in the past two years started pretending to be black. When he repeated his lie about Democrats wanting abortion to be legal even after birth, he got called a liar to his face. It may have been the most disastrous campaign event in US history. Yes, it was that bad.

Then Vance, his creepy VP candidate attacked Simone Biles as “lazy” and “cowardly” on the SAME FUCKING DAY she wins a gold medal for the USA. He was attacking her for being unable to compete in the last Olympics four years ago because of a stress-related breakdown.

Simone Biles is America’s sweetheart and today was her day of redemption. There was never a good time for a sleazy attack like that, but he picked the worst day possible. He should have been filmed setting fire to live kittens in front of the American Nazi Party headquarters. It would have been a better look for him.

And yet, the day wasn’t over. There was one more moment of yin. Trump’s readers on Truth Social should have exploded over this past month  Instead, they’re falling like a rock. Visitors are down by a third from two months ago. He hasn’t just alienated people who hadn’t decided, but he’s now shedding his own true believers.

Trump is dead.

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