May 17th 2018
Even before Trump came along, America had a bad reputation about keeping their word in international agreements. There’s a long list of American toadies who sold out their countries to American interests and then got shafted anyway, ranging from the Shah to Ky to Saddam Hussein.
One lesson stood out: meet American demands to disarm, and get attacked anyway. It happened in Iraq, and it happened in Libya. The lesson was clear enough; acquisce, and get beaten up. Show a willingness to put up a fight, and the Americans will back off.
So it was never in the cards that the paranoid and secretive regime in Pyongyang would agree to American demands they give up their nuclear weapons. Even if they didn’t already regard America as the absolute evil in the world (an opinion formed, in certain measure, by American atrocities in the Korean war), they had the object lessons from other places.
And now, with Trump in charge, America is absolutely feckless, and totally bereft of any moral rudder. They reneged on the Paris agreement. They reneged on the Iran agreement. They reneged on multiple treaties, including SEATO and NAFTA.
If American couldn’t be trusted in the eyes of North Korea when they had an honest president (Carter) or at least one who would stay bought (Clinton), why would they throw away the one element of self-defence they possess dealing with Trump?
Trump had been crowing about his diplomatic triumphs, both imaginary and delusional, for several weeks, puffed up with grandeur of delusions fed by the Faux Noise machine, which promised Trump would surely win the Nobel Prize for all this. It was so ridiculous that if Kim was any better than Trump, he might have deflated Trump as an act of mercy, because Trump went beyond ridiculous.
Of course, Kim isn’t really in a good position to notice wild megalomania and paranoid self-aggrandizement. He may have considered Trump’s behavior to be normal.
But he deflated Trump, and made him look like a fool in a way even Trump couldn’t miss.
The denouement was triggered, in part, by joint South Korea/US military exercises, which Pyongyang interpreted as an affront and an expression of poor faith bargaining. The Pentagon may have argued that they couldn’t stop the exercises because red tape would have reared up and strangled them all (not seeing a downside here…) but even if it wasn’t meant as an insult, or at least a challenge, it was taken that way.
Trump reacted with typical good grace, promising Kim he would meet the same fate that Gaddafi did. That seems a good way to restore Kim’s trust: threaten to have him lynched and stuffed in a sewer pipe.
Ah, Trump. Always the charmer. That’s how he proposed to Melania, you know.
He then went on to offer the least convincing carrot-and-stick deal since Hitler assured Churchill he could keep his brandy and cigars: Kim “will get protections that will be very strong. He’d be in his country and running his country. His country would be very rich.”
Why, he would even be allowed to stay in office and rule the country, if you define “office” as “stuffed in a sewer pipe” and rule as “having your intestines set on fire and your testicles ripped off.”
I just can’t imagine how Kim would refuse a deal like that. Trump is very trustworthy, you know: he says, “You can believe me” all the time. He couldn’t say that if it wasn’t true.
Trump will probably have to back away in angry confusion. He’s already so weakened as President that if he ordered an attack on North Korea (almost certain to result in nuclear and conventional attack on South Korea that would kill tens of millions) the Pentagon might actually mutiny. There’s already been open talk in the military about defying some of the more capricious scenarios likely to occur under Trump.
Iran has to be watching this closely, both for signs a humiliated Trump might try to save face by lashing out at them, and for object lessens on how to manage Trump. He is not shrewd, he’s easily played, and all Iran needs to do is figure out a good point of leverage. What can they offer to stroke Trump’s ego, and how can they manage it to either continue to play him, or if to make him fall flat on his face, leave him baffled and helpless.
Hint: look to Qatar. Suddenly, they’re Trump’s best buddies again. And all it cost them was a $300 million investment in that enormous white elephant at 666 Park Place.
Time is on the side of Trump’s would-be targets: as more and more evidence of Trump’s criminal and possibly treasonous activities emerge, his residency in office appears shorter and shorter. Even Senate Republicans are showing a willingness to move against him at this point.
In the meantime, in North Korea, they’re probably planning a spectacular military parade (of the type Trump yearns for so tragically) to celebrate their stupendous victory over the evil Americans.
Not that it matters to the North Korean people: they have to applaud such displays every other day and twice on Sundays, and somehow, they still go hungry.
