Bombs Awry! Behind the bluster, a real threat

Bombs Awry!

Behind the bluster, a real threat

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

October 7th, 2026

With nearly everyone else, I would have just assumed that Trump’s remarks about “Let them take out San Diego [or] Los Angeles” would just result from garbled phrasing. With a lot of extemporaneous speeches, the spoken word sounds more coherent than it would appear in writing, especially since the spoken word has all sorts of cues that words on paper lack: tone, pitch, timbre, pauses, timing, and of course facial expressions and body language. Anyone who has caught flak for being funny or “cute” on line realizes that humor without those cues can often be missed or misinterpreted—along with the fact that a given percentage of your readers are going to be humorless twats.

With Trump, that benefit of the doubt can’t really apply. Humor is out: he’s a cold, cruel man whose idea of hilarity lies in mocking and hurting the weak and defenseless. Forty-eight hours after he said that and the uproar began, his lackeys have spun endless “what he meant” excuses, but Trump himself has made no effort to correct or amend his remarks. He meant it.

These days his speeches totally lack any sense of real purpose, but are the same collection of prepackaged spiel that he uses regardless of occasion or tone that the speech might require. He’ll tell the same “you knew I was a snake” story at a campaign rally or at a military memorial. I’m not sure he has any actual understanding of half of what he says, but is just repeating himself like a broken Chatty Cathy doll.

And there is the constant element of actual malice. Trump hates California; not only has the state voted against him overwhelmingly in all three elections he’s faced, but it’s home to Governor Gavin Newsom, who was one of the first politicians to openly mock him, and did so very well. It’s also home to late night entertainers like Stephen Colbert or Jimmy Kimmel, along with all the hated Hollywood personalities who have stepped forth to oppose him.

The right wing propaganda campaign is that prosperous social democratic states like California, and especially California, are in reality vast wastelands of homelessness, drug use, immigrants and homosexuals. Even here in far northern California, which admittedly is quite different from the rest of the state, it’s not hard to find MAGAts complaining about what a hellhole the ‘dumocrats’ have turned California into. If you ask them what makes their lives in California a living hell, they’re usually reduced to bitching about gas prices, and the two point two cents per gallon in taxes that were added since Newsom became governor. (Yes, I’ve actually had people tell me that 2.2 cents is the reason prices are so high!) But this plays into Trump’s paws, and even if the vast majority of Californians know the agitprop campaign is bullshit, people in Nebraska and other places eat it up, and even cheer the promised destruction of that librul hellhole to the west that is why their taxes suck, or something.

Finally, Trump is scared and desperate. Most of his policies have blown up in his face, he’s the least popular president since polling began, and increasingly, it looks like Dems will pick up dozens of seats in the House and perhaps a half dozen seats in the Senate.

Even Trump has to realize that in the aftermath of such a shellacking, his own party will largely turn against him. He has to seriously consider the consequences of being convicted, expelled, and put on trial for a huge assortment of crimes.

He needs a 9/11, a Reichstag fire, an October 7th. To that end, he might consider creating at least the impression of a catastrophe hitting in America, and if there is to be such a thing, have it in a place he doesn’t care about, such as Los Angeles or San Diego.

While I doubt this would result in mushroom clouds over either of those cities, I could image “nuclear devices” being “discovered” in those locales, obviously snuck in by Iranians, or perhaps Canadians. And hey, if that caused widespread panic in southern California that interfered with voting, why, so much the better! Two birds, one stone, right?

I suspect that given the level of competence and intelligence we’re seen from his administration, any such effort would backfire on him. His ability to bullshit his way out of any threat has worn thin. People realize Mexico isn’t sending rapists, Iran doesn’t have nukes, Haitians aren’t eating our dogs and cats, they aren’t forcing gender change on kids at school, and Canada isn’t shipping tons of fentanyl into the US inside Iranian nuclear plants. (Apparently nuclear plants are illicit drug factories. Stop by your local atomic plant and pick up a couple dime bags for the kids on Halloween!) In short, the Donald softshoe show has run its course.

But if we assume that Trump can’t conjure up some sort of credible crisis to save his ass, the threat level escalates after the election, especially if it makes clear that Trump has lost control of Congress and possibly his own party. (I don’t think he’s going to try to cancel the election. Even his flunkies realize that might spark a widespread revolt and a very one-sided civil war he would lose.)

But in extremis, he’ll do everything he can to maintain control, and he’ll be a raging and unpredictable mass of howling paranoia and narcissistic end-stage rage. He’ll be extremely dangerous. He’ll risk anything and everything. He may even forbid Congress from convening in January.

For Californians, there’s an extra element of danger. He hates us because we are “disloyal” and “librul”. And he is perfectly willing to punish ‘blue states.’

Example: under all presidents since FEMA was established, there was no difference in emergency FEMA request grants among various states. It was a steady 85-90%. In Trump’s second term, that has changed. Red states enjoy the same 85-90% approval rate. Blue states are seeing a 20% approval rate. It’s almost like natural disasters no longer afflict blue states! Yeah, that must be it.

But meanwhile, California is looking at the winter from hell. The most recent projections of El Niño effects are flat out terrifying. One model I saw showed expected precipitation along the California coast to be an absurd 300-500% of normal for December through March, which is our wet season. If that actually comes to pass, the floods and landslides would be catastrophic!

Federal relief? Fuhgeddaboutit. We’re a 20% state—if we’re lucky. More than likely, Trump would just station troops along Oregon, Nevada and Arizona border to shoot Californians trying to escape. So if you happen to have El Niño’s email, you might want to send a note politely asking it to hold off until mid January, when hopefully we’ll have a new Congress and Trump has fled to Russia.

Otherwise, we’re on our own. Good luck.

Winter is Coming — Preparing for a possibly historic winter

Winter is Coming

Preparing for a possibly historic winter

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 29th, 2026

As horrific as the images from the flood in Nepal have been, the fact is things are going to get worse.

A large lake has formed upstream, held in place only by unstable debris from the first flood, making a second, even larger flood likely. I just hope they get all the survivors out before that happens.

And yes, climate change is the main reason this happened. Like most mountainous areas, the effects of global warming are amplified, and in the area of Nepal where this one happened, the mean temperature of the region has risen by five degrees since 1940, from 43 to 48. That’s nearly double the world average.

Any region on Earth that has mountains tall enough to have glaciers presents the same risk. I live near Mount Shasta in California, which rises to a modest (by Himalayan standards) 14,179 feet and has relatively tiny glaciers. I’m about seven miles from the summit. Nonetheless, a glacial outburst swept away several homes back in the 1930s, and a few years ago another such outflow on the uninhabited eastern side of the mountain nearly took out our water supply and put the town on water limits for two years until the damage could be repaired.

The mountains north of Santa Barbara, the Santa Ynez range, are mere pimples in comparison, rising to about 3,000 feet and obviously don’t have any glaciers. Nonetheless, about eight years ago massive amounts of rain triggered a debris flow into Montecito (yes, it means “Little mountain”) which killed 22 people, destroyed dozens of homes, and closed US101 for about two weeks.

The fact is if you live near mountains, glaciers or not, 20,000 feet or 2,000, there is always an element of risk, from huge events like the Nepal catastrophe to major nuisances resulting in flooded basements or ruined landscaping. And those risks are going to increase as time goes on, exponentially for some folks.

I’ll focus on California for the rest of this piece, and advise everyone else to talk to insurance appraisers, climatologists, hydrologists, and local and regional disaster preparedness outfits, and get an idea of what challenges you might end up facing. (For Californians, Doctor Daniel Swain at weatherwest.com is my go-to source on weather and climate outlooks, and much of what I’m saying comes from that source. Any errors are almost certainly mine).

The present building El Niño is already at record levels, and will keep climbing for two or three more months. It will be the biggest on record. Additionally, ocean sea surface temperatures broke 70F for the first time on record. That’s the average ocean surface levels between 60 degrees north and 60 degrees south. Even more disturbing is the fact that it has a seasonal annual cycle, and the peak temperature is usually about April or May. By the end of August it’s normally about half way to the annual low.

That represents a LOT of excess energy—more than humanity produces in a year. Think of the oceans as a giant thermal battery. It takes nearly ten thousand times as much energy to heat a cubic meter of sea water compared to a cubic meter of surface air.

El Niños are disruptive under the best of circumstances. And while some, such as the 2015 event, had little or no impact on California, you can be sure they were noticed elsewhere. What seemed like half of Australia burned in that one.

And these aren’t normal circumstances. Temperatures, for both the El Niño itself and planet-wide, are off the charts. There’s no way we can have all those extra petajoules of energy slopping around without something going “bang” and messing a lot of stuff up.

Central and Southern California, going by the track record, can expect heavy, perhaps extreme amounts of rain, starting around mid December. Northern California, where most of the big reservoirs are and which can handle lots of rain (we’ve averaged 65” per year for the past four years), is not as certain. The gray area between copious rain and the expected drought for the Pacific Northwest (the last thing they need) falls directly over us.

The coastal regions of California may be looking at a “perfect storm” confluence of events: higher overall sea levels caused by expanding warm waters pushed up to us from the El Niño, King Tides in late December and late January are caused by lunar orbits, and would be exacerbated by surges from approaching storms. It’s reasonable to assume we’ll see at least some coastal flooding.

Of greater concern are the expected atmospheric rivers. Depending on their source, they can either have low snow levels (out of the Gulf of Alaska) or very high snow levels. The right sequence could lead to severe run-off and flooding, similar to 1992-3. And in south and central parts of the state, rainfall totals could be well above average.

While California is better prepared for major storm events than most areas, one can only go so far, and it’s best to prepare for extreme events. To repeat what I wrote above: “Talk to insurance appraisers, climatologists, hydrologists, and local and regional disaster preparedness outfits, and get an idea of what challenges you might end up facing.” Ask about worst case scenarios, because while nobody wants to have a major disaster, it’s best to know what your options are beforehand.

People living below dams, in canyons, or below recent burn areas are at greatest risk. Any such area can experience debris flows even in areas with decent flood abatement processes in place. And if we get a significant snowpack in the late fall and early winter, be prepared in case a warm, wet system comes in. Areas normally not subject to flooding and/or debris flows will be at risk. While nobody expects another Nepal, more Montecitos are likely to happen.

And remember; the United States will be missing in action. The current administration is actively blocking aid and disaster relief to states Trump doesn’t like, and California is #1 on his hate list. As far as this administration is concerned, we’re on our own.

There will be weather related-catastrophes over the next 18 months. And while California might get lucky, be prepared.

And pay attention to weather forecasts. Even though the DOGE cuts have done significant damage to NOAA and NWS, they are still incredibly valuable. This year, they might save your life.

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