Tag: global warming

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Winter is Coming — Preparing for a possibly historic winter

Winter is Coming

Preparing for a possibly historic winter

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

August 29th, 2026

As horrific as the images from the flood in Nepal have been, the fact is things are going to get worse.

A large lake has formed upstream, held in place only by unstable debris from the first flood, making a second, even larger flood likely. I just hope they get all the survivors out before that happens.

And yes, climate change is the main reason this happened. Like most mountainous areas, the effects of global warming are amplified, and in the area of Nepal where this one happened, the mean temperature of the region has risen by five degrees since 1940, from 43 to 48. That’s nearly double the world average.

Any region on Earth that has mountains tall enough to have glaciers presents the same risk. I live near Mount Shasta in California, which rises to a modest (by Himalayan standards) 14,179 feet and has relatively tiny glaciers. I’m about seven miles from the summit. Nonetheless, a glacial outburst swept away several homes back in the 1930s, and a few years ago another such outflow on the uninhabited eastern side of the mountain nearly took out our water supply and put the town on water limits for two years until the damage could be repaired.

The mountains north of Santa Barbara, the Santa Ynez range, are mere pimples in comparison, rising to about 3,000 feet and obviously don’t have any glaciers. Nonetheless, about eight years ago massive amounts of rain triggered a debris flow into Montecito (yes, it means “Little mountain”) which killed 22 people, destroyed dozens of homes, and closed US101 for about two weeks.

The fact is if you live near mountains, glaciers or not, 20,000 feet or 2,000, there is always an element of risk, from huge events like the Nepal catastrophe to major nuisances resulting in flooded basements or ruined landscaping. And those risks are going to increase as time goes on, exponentially for some folks.

I’ll focus on California for the rest of this piece, and advise everyone else to talk to insurance appraisers, climatologists, hydrologists, and local and regional disaster preparedness outfits, and get an idea of what challenges you might end up facing. (For Californians, Doctor Daniel Swain at weatherwest.com is my go-to source on weather and climate outlooks, and much of what I’m saying comes from that source. Any errors are almost certainly mine).

The present building El Niño is already at record levels, and will keep climbing for two or three more months. It will be the biggest on record. Additionally, ocean sea surface temperatures broke 70F for the first time on record. That’s the average ocean surface levels between 60 degrees north and 60 degrees south. Even more disturbing is the fact that it has a seasonal annual cycle, and the peak temperature is usually about April or May. By the end of August it’s normally about half way to the annual low.

That represents a LOT of excess energy—more than humanity produces in a year. Think of the oceans as a giant thermal battery. It takes nearly ten thousand times as much energy to heat a cubic meter of sea water compared to a cubic meter of surface air.

El Niños are disruptive under the best of circumstances. And while some, such as the 2015 event, had little or no impact on California, you can be sure they were noticed elsewhere. What seemed like half of Australia burned in that one.

And these aren’t normal circumstances. Temperatures, for both the El Niño itself and planet-wide, are off the charts. There’s no way we can have all those extra petajoules of energy slopping around without something going “bang” and messing a lot of stuff up.

Central and Southern California, going by the track record, can expect heavy, perhaps extreme amounts of rain, starting around mid December. Northern California, where most of the big reservoirs are and which can handle lots of rain (we’ve averaged 65” per year for the past four years), is not as certain. The gray area between copious rain and the expected drought for the Pacific Northwest (the last thing they need) falls directly over us.

The coastal regions of California may be looking at a “perfect storm” confluence of events: higher overall sea levels caused by expanding warm waters pushed up to us from the El Niño, King Tides in late December and late January are caused by lunar orbits, and would be exacerbated by surges from approaching storms. It’s reasonable to assume we’ll see at least some coastal flooding.

Of greater concern are the expected atmospheric rivers. Depending on their source, they can either have low snow levels (out of the Gulf of Alaska) or very high snow levels. The right sequence could lead to severe run-off and flooding, similar to 1992-3. And in south and central parts of the state, rainfall totals could be well above average.

While California is better prepared for major storm events than most areas, one can only go so far, and it’s best to prepare for extreme events. To repeat what I wrote above: “Talk to insurance appraisers, climatologists, hydrologists, and local and regional disaster preparedness outfits, and get an idea of what challenges you might end up facing.” Ask about worst case scenarios, because while nobody wants to have a major disaster, it’s best to know what your options are beforehand.

People living below dams, in canyons, or below recent burn areas are at greatest risk. Any such area can experience debris flows even in areas with decent flood abatement processes in place. And if we get a significant snowpack in the late fall and early winter, be prepared in case a warm, wet system comes in. Areas normally not subject to flooding and/or debris flows will be at risk. While nobody expects another Nepal, more Montecitos are likely to happen.

And remember; the United States will be missing in action. The current administration is actively blocking aid and disaster relief to states Trump doesn’t like, and California is #1 on his hate list. As far as this administration is concerned, we’re on our own.

There will be weather related-catastrophes over the next 18 months. And while California might get lucky, be prepared.

And pay attention to weather forecasts. Even though the DOGE cuts have done significant damage to NOAA and NWS, they are still incredibly valuable. This year, they might save your life.

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The Kerr County Flood — A tragedy, and a warning

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

July 6th, 2025

 

First, my heart goes out to the friends and family of all those who perished in the horrible flash flood along the Guadalupe River in Texas yesterday. That so many were young children only adds to the grief that we all feel.

In two hours, the river flow rose from about 500 cubic feet per second to over 100,000, a staggering increase. Even in the flood-prone Texas hills, this was extraordinary.

Even as they continue to search for twenty-seven missing young girls, the finger-pointing and blaming has also reached flood stage levels. Some of it, course, is idiotic on the face of it. Yes, the flood and resultant tragedy really did happen. No, cloud seeding wasn’t involved. And if you think God did it to punish people who bother you, you need to get a new god. That one’s worthless.

But the more I read about this event, the less blame there seems to be to be meted out. Let’s start with the camp: yes, it was in an area that was prone to flooding. Indeed, in the century that the camp had been there, it had flooded several times, although resulting only in minor property damage and no loss of life.

A lot of people have been blaming the National Weather Service, citing either lack of competence or staff shortages. A local report indicates that the NWS did do the sort of forecasting and warning that could be reasonably expected of it.

According to KXAN in Kerr County:

“[T]he NWS provided additional details on its notification timeline for the Kerr County flood, including:

  • The National Water Center Flood Hazard Outlook issued on Thursday morning indicated an expansion of flash flood potential to include Kerrville and surrounding areas.
  • A flood watch was issued by the NWS Austin/San Antonio office at 1:18 p.m. on Thursday, in effect through Friday morning.
  • The Weather Prediction Center issued three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions for the excessive rainfall event as early as 6:10 p.m. Thursday indicating the potential for flash flooding.
  • The National Water Center Area Hydrologic Discussion #144 at 6:22 p.m. on Thursday messaged locally considerable flood wording for areas north and west of San Antonio, including Kerrville.
  • At 1:14 a.m. Friday, a flash flood warning with a considerable tag (which denotes high-damage threats and will automatically trigger Wireless Emergency Alerts on enabled mobile devices and over NOAA Weather Radio) was issued for Kerr County.
  • The flash flood warning was upgraded to a flash flood emergency for southcentral Kerr County as early as 4:03 a.m. Friday.
  • The 5:00 a.m. National Water Center Area Hydrologic Discussion #146 on Friday included concern for widespread considerable flooding through the day. The Flood Hazard Outlook was also upgraded to considerable and catastrophic.
  • A flash flood emergency was issued for the Guadalupe River at 5:34 a.m.”

KXAN also reported “For instance, directly under Vesper at the local NWS office is a key position – warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) – that has remained vacant since April. The role was most recently held by longtime employee Paul Yura, who took an early retirement package offered to agency workers as the administration worked to reduce the budget and personnel number at the NWS and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.” They noted that there were 5 other vacancies in the 21-person staff, including the Senior Hydrologist who took early retirement. The hydrologist is the person you want to speak to when you want to know how MUCH it’s going to rain.

It’s impossible to say how much the absence of those two positions factored into seeing the danger and warning against it, but they did get the word out and in a timely manner.

There’s hardly a place on Earth that is immune to natural disaster. I live in a place that many consider idyllic, but wildfire is a constant worry, ten foot snowstorms are an occasional problem, it reached 109F a year ago today, oh, and did I mention the volcano? No place is completely immune.

Living in hilly country, I know how difficult specific forecasting can be. Microclimates are a major bugger factor in any forecast, and my county has more climate zones than Canada. All of Canada. One time I couldn’t get in to my office, eight miles away and at the same altitude, puzzling clients who couldn’t figure out why three inches of snow could be a serious problem. Only it was five feet here, and the highway was still closed. Supercell storms are tricky as well: on flat ground, one spot may remain bone dry while a mile away they get three inches of rain in ten minutes.

I can’t speak to the timeliness of local emergency response authorities, but I will note there wasn’t much time, and I doubt a single one of them thought, “Oh, let’s let a bunch of seven-year-old girls drown. It will look great on the town’s tourism flyers!”

So quit blaming, people. This is just one of those fucking awful things that happen, and all the preparation in the world can’t insure you’ll be safe. As the saying goes, “Nature always bats last.”

That said, a warning: The ongoing depletion of scientific, response and forecast facilities is going to whip around and bite us on the ass. We’ll miss a Cat 5 hurricane, assuming it’s still just a tropical storm and not have the facilities to spot the bombogenesis or the last minute veer that smashes a major city. Second, the climate is changing, and at an accelerating rate, and ‘once-in-a-century’ events are going to happen with increasing frequency and with increasing severity. Storms, including snow storms, will get worse. Temperatures will fluctuate more wildly, especially on the high end. Many massive weather-related disasters await.

And in places like Texas, where people hate gummint red tape, usually motivated by profit, people will build where they shouldn’t, in areas more prone to flood, fire, earthquake or tornadoes than others.

These things will happen, many will die, and if we want to cast blame, we will need to start by looking in the mirror first.

And remember—Nature always bats last.

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Scientific Kattenstoet — When madness organizes

Bryan Zepp Jamieson

November 19th 2024

Going clear back to the 1980s, the scientific community and millions of other educated people have been warning about global warming and its knock-on effects. For decades, people in the know have advised us that among many other things, warmer ocean temperatures combined with warmer air would result in bigger and far more destructive hurricanes.

Despite the gravity of the looming catastrophe, most people chose to simply ignore the warnings, a sense of denial bolstered by a coalition of filthy-fuel corporations and their fascist enablers in right-wing media, who assured their panting morons that “climate change” was just a conspiracy theory fostered by people who wanted us all to live in caves and hate capitalism.

To say that this caused a lot of frustration among sane people is an understatement.

An unforgettable example of this occurred as hurricane Milton was approaching Tampa Bay about a month ago. A Miami TV weatherman, John Morales, saw the numbers that suggested that the storm was undergoing “bombogenesis”–a sudden and large intensification. The phenomenon, not widely known twenty years ago, is a major factor in estimating the power and destructiveness of an approaching hurricane. Normally, a drop of 25mb in the central eye pressure in 24 hours indicates such a phenomenon is taking place. Milton dropped FIFTY millibars in that period, and Morales understood—and dreaded—the implications. He burst into tears over the damage to come.

Global warming means bigger, stronger storms. And a host of even more serious problems, but that was probably the easiest one to predict decades ago. And the American South has always been the area most vulnerable to landfalls from such storms.

So while Helene and Milton this year may have caused despair among climate scientists, they certainly did not cause surprise. And they’ll be the first to say it’s only going to get worse.

In fact, here in northern California, it’s just starting to snow this morning. A system is approaching the Oregon coast, and while not a hurricane, is developing similar intensity. The central pressure is expected to plunge about 40mb today, with central winds over 90 mph and waves in some areas 60 feet high. I’m 100 miles inland and at 3,300 elevation, and expect heavy snow for three days, and heavy rain after that. Nothing too extraordinary for us, but along the coast from the Bay area northward, it could have storm-of-the decade elements. Climate change didn’t cause the storm, but it does influence its power.

It’s not surprising that climate denialism—the refusal to accept that human emissions are having a major effect on climate world-wide—is losing popularity. When you get several storms-of-the-century or drought of a lifetime in the past decade, there is a dawning awareness that Something Is Going On Here.

Of course, this is the age of Trump, and so there’s no reason to suppose that dawning awareness is going to be constructive, or even sane.

Enter Veterans on Patrol (VOP). This outfit apparently actually did start out as a veterans advocacy group, but like so many elements in American life, it has been taken over by heavily-armed howling nuts from the far right.

Now, normal people, and by ‘normal’ I mean ‘not in the terminal stages of tertiary syphilis or convinced that their cat is telling them to assassinate Taylor Swift,’ actual normal people might assume that Helene was a pretty clear consequence of a hurricane supercharged by several trillion tons of greenhouse gases which might go where hurricanes frequently go and cause more damage than usual. Normal people might think that because, you know, normal.

But not our demented heroes of the VOP. A sample of their email conversations was in the Guardian today, and it read like this: “The US Military destroyed multiple communities and murdered hundreds by steering Weather Weapon Helene into Appalachia country, what should we do?” The answers offered were “Target military equipment and destroy the [directed energy weapons] easily accessible by the public”; “Destroy power and water lines that feed military bases”; “Locate all Top Brass bold enough to walk in public and detain them for murder”; “ALL 3 ABOVE”.

Well, that seems reasonable. After all, we all know from bad movies on the SciFi channel that one mad general, armed only with a black box the size of a shoe box and powered by a single D cell battery can steer a storm system 500 miles across and containing between 5 to 20×1013 watts of energy (200,000,000,000,000 watts) like it was a Hot Wheels toy and send it a thousand miles inland to strike Moscow.

Rather than accept that what happened is exactly what every climate scientist in the world has been warning will happen for debates, it’s easier to believe something that is nefarious, evil, sinister, and utterly demented.

But VOP has a constructive answer to this: “VOP News is openly requesting the public to provide the locations of all USMIC equipment used to control the weather. We intend to destroy this equipment in order to save lives.”

Yes, and Taylor Swift will be safe just as soon as we round up and kill any and all cats using mind control who don’t like Taylor Swift. What could be easier?

VOP is far from alone in this steadfast lunacy. Millions of Americans believe nonsense like this, and even zanier shit.

It’s not limited to America, or the twenty first century. In Europe in the thirteenth century, the Church hit on the notion that cats were evil and needed to be killed (“Kattenstoet”). The idea caught on, and most of Europe’s cat population was massacred. This allowed the rodent population, a favorite vector for the fleas that cause the plague, to explode.

There probably isn’t a culture on Earth without similar tales of mass idiocy, usually conducted with horrible consequences in their past and even their present.

Humans are all too frequently subject to conspiracy theories and similar idiocies. An uncharitable person might call them gullible, and I’m not feeling particularly charitable. They are gullible, and a lot of them are also mean and destructive and delight in the damage they cause.

The only solution is time, and sometimes even that doesn’t work. Ypres, Belgium, still celebrates Kattenstoet, although in a major victory for humanity and sanity, they now only throw plush toy cats off the belfry. See? Progress is possible, even if humans are involved.

But the madness will continue as America continues to lose its way. Climate scientists and even TV weather presenters get death threats from people who believe they are so intellectually superior they can envision D cell batteries steering hurricanes.

Oddly enough, no matter how many people they round up, the hurricanes will just keep on getting worse.

Obviously, Taylor Swift and the cats are behind that. Right?

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Odds and Gods

Odds and Gods

Momma Nature is gonna spank little baby

© Bryan Zepp Jamieson

December 8, 2012

The Climate Change conference is taking place right now in Qatar, a ludicrous choice since Qatar has the highest per capita emissions of CO2 in the world.

Adding to the general air of clownishness that surrounds this meeting is the fact that Senator Inhofe and Lord Monckton showed up—two of the biggest fools the denier community has. Inhofe wanted the world to know it wasn’t hot and dry in Oklahoma, and Monckton tried to claim he was the representative from Burma and actually managed to address the meeting before the ruse was discovered and he was kicked out of the country.

In the meantime, some of the details of the IPCC’s next comprehensive report leaked out. It’s a pretty terrifying report. Climate Change will reach catastrophic levels by 2050, 37 years away. That’s pretty bad. But the IPCC does not address the billions of tons of methane that will be released as the permafrost in Siberia and Canada melt. This is not a projected problem—it’s been going on for twenty years now, and is one of the main reasons why the rate of climate change keeps exceeding scientific predictions.

Continue reading “Odds and Gods”

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Something in the Air

Something in the Air

Climate Change affects the election

© Bryan Zepp Jamieson

October 28th 2012

Once again, a rogue weather pattern has everyone transfixed this weekend. This time it’s “Frankenstorm”, the aptly named confluence of a hurricane, a nor’easter, an arctic blast, and a winter storm from the Pacific. They’re supposed to more-or-less merge over New England, and up to a million square miles of northeastern America and southeastern Canada are going to see some of the wildest weather seen since at least 1991 (“The Perfect Storm”) or 1938 (“The Labor Day Hurricane”) or, well, whenever. I’m hoping, for the sake of the hundred or so million people in the region, it turns out to be a bit of a fizzle. In part because I don’t want people to suffer, and partly because the region is a Democratic stronghold. Well, OK, Quebec and Ontario not so much, but they’re far enough to the northeast that it will probably turn into an unusually large snowstorm, something they can deal with.

It comes right after four debates over the past month in which the topic of climate change was never mentioned. That’s something that affects people far more than abortion, gay marriage, defense spending, taxes or even Obama’s college transcripts. For starters, it will cost them far more, and is more likely to kill or dispossess them than any of the items listed.

Back last March, a heat wave struck the same region now ducking the wrath of Frankenstorm and sent temperatures soaring 10, 15, even 20 degrees—not above normal, but above all-time records for the dates. Just imagine if a pattern like that set up in July! It not only can happen—it will.

Continue reading “Something in the Air”

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Watching the WAIS line

Antarctica unimpressed with GOP declarations that global warming is a myth

February 4th 2012

 Back in the summer of 2002, February and the first week of March, the Larsen B ice shelf on the east coast of the Antarctic peninsula suddenly and shockingly disintegrated. For people who had complacently assumed that Antarctic was too cold for global warming to have an effect, it was a wake up call.

The ice shelf didn’t just calve off the way the sheets of ice pushed into the ocean by the glaciers that formed them always do. If that were the case, it would have made for a big iceberg, about the size of Rhode Island, but nothing too extraordinary. Calving is the inevitable fate of ice pushed into the ocean by the glaciers. And the Larsen B, like the Larsen A before it, was expected to break off. Larsen A broke off in 1995, but since it was only 4,000 years old and was showing signs of calving, it came as no surprise to anyone. But Larsen B, older than the Holocene, was believed to be more stable, and would take much longer to calve off. However, it was the disintegration that was shocking.

Continue reading “Watching the WAIS line”

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